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Saturday, September 13, 2014

Worlds Group stage predictions

Group A: 1st Samsung White, 2nd Edward Gaming

Samsung White is the favorite of many for the entire tournament as one of the two best teams from Korea and EDG is the #1 seed from China a region that has placed 2nd behind Korea in most international competition for the last year. Their opponents in the group are the weaker of the two Wildcard teams and the 2nd seed from SEA the region that finished dead last in All Stars Paris invitational. I highly doubt anyone has different predictions for this group. 

Group B: 1st Team Solo Mid, 2nd SK Gaming 

This prediction is probably the one that will get me the most flak. After all I just admit that China has basically been 2nd behind Korea in all tournaments outside IEM for the last year, how could SHRC fail to escape this group with no Korean team? I've been watching some LPL games to prep for Worlds and what I saw gave me a lot of confidence for LCS teams. The Chinese teams have serious problems in their vision and map control and a particularly poor understanding of proper 2v1 starts. If the SK we saw all playoffs, and the TSM we saw against C9 in the finals show up for the group stage matches SHRC will be in a world of trouble. TSM and SK both demonstrated much better 2v1, vision, and map control than anything SHRC showed in their recent matches. SHRC might have a mechanical edge but LCS teams have been forged in a meta that considers kills mere tools to securing a bigger objective. Both SK and TSM have been trained all season to crush the kinds of teams coming out of the LPL, they have the tools in place all that's left is for them to make it happen. 

Group C: 1st Samsung Blue, 2nd Fnatic

Do I even need to explain SGB? #1 seed from Korea, heavily favored, the only team people think could stand up to sister team White. 
The real talk is about Fnatic and much like with SK in group B I believe Fnatic has an edge over LMQ and OMG due to watching recent LPL games. Fnatic has always had incredible team play and strong vision control. They have struggled some this season but that's even more reason to value them above OMG and LMQ as a Fnatic without summer split issues would have been just as favored to win this group due to their map and vision control advantage, without having been forced to improve by disappointing results in EU playoffs. Fnatic has made very smart moves since playoffs ended showing up to scrim with NA playoff teams at PAX and then moving on to Korea where they added Toyz to their coaching staff to prepare for the tournament. What we've seen suggest Fnatic is working out the kinks before the groups start on the 18th and if they do it's hard to see them landing anywhere but 2nd in group c. 

Group D: 1st Najin White Shield, 2nd Cloud9

Apart from Korea being the heavy favorites in this tournament it's hard to deny how good Shield looked as they ran the gauntlet defeating teams like OGN Summer champions KTA and S3 World champions SKT T1 K to secure the final seed from Korea. Shield is not as untouchable seeming as the Samsung teams in this tournament but their recent performances are enough to convince me and many others that they'll be able to hold off the LCS power house teams long enough to take the 1st seed out of group D. 
C9 is hardly a favorite for this group, many people admit they've got a decent shot against Alliance but Alliance is still the favorite of many due to the many times EU has come up ahead of NA in the past. On close inspection though it's clear Cloud9 should hold the edge in the matchup. Meteos and Balls are stronger players than their Alliance counterparts, C9 has had significantly more experience both regional and international as a unit, and Cloud9 is far more decisive in their wins often closing games they're clearly ahead in 5-10 minutes faster than Alliance in similar scenarios. It's these small edges that should be enough for Cloud 9 to make up for what Hai might lack in the head to head against Froggen and push them over into the 2nd place finish in group D. 

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