FantasyLCS week 10, Who Do I Start?

With two weeks to go we're down to the wire on FantasyLCS and so it's out with just the risky picks and now it's time to talk about anyone who's a good bet this week.

In EU:

Fnatic and Alliance are generally pretty good bets in EU. This week though they face off against each other and it's generally not smart to bet on both sides of the coin if you cant ensure it'll be a back and forth points explosion like some of the more ridiculous Crs vs C9 games. Fnatic vs Alliance could be a barn burner, it could be a 1 sided stomp, it's hard to tell in advance. Both teams are safe bets so if you're not stuck deciding between them I'd be confident in either set of players. If you're forced to choose between an Alliance player and Fnatic player though, I'd say run the Fnatic player as they're on a bigger up swing as both team and players right now.

ROCCAT and SHC members are both looking good this week for the same reason. Both teams look for the most part on the upswing, despite ROCCAT's score they did play much better last week than in previous weeks, and both face a struggling SK and a floundering Gambit.

Finally there's Millenium who while not having the easiest schedule this week, they face Fnatic on day 2, are generally good bets. Creaton was the highest scoring player last week, both Creaton and Kerp still sit as 2 of the highest total points generators for FantasyLCS. It's hard to ever discount them as good picks.

In NA:

LMQ are top of the table and ridiculous points generators. XiaoWeiXiao and Vasilii round out the top 5 total points scorers for FantasyLCS. Less talked about though is support Mor who has been quite the incredible scorer lately including over 44 points last week as a support. On top of their habit of generating lots of points LMQ also has a decent schedule facing CoL, who they're 3-0 over so far, and C9 who they've gone 1-2 against so far in close games.

If you believe in Curse's whackadoodle ability to womp top teams this is probably the time to start them as they face CLG (2-1) and EG (1-2) this week. But remember it's a risk if the good curse shows up you can expect Voyboy, Quas, and Dominate to top the points for the week much like they did last week, if the bad curse shows up though you can expect abysmal single digit numbers.

TSM is a big question mark this week. They face CLG (1-2) who's been slumping recently and EG (3-0) so in theory they should at least hit decent numbers. It's hard to predict though as they've made a roster change bringing in former Blaze support Lustboy. What is for certain though is BENCH GLEEB! Since Gleeb is no longer starting he wont score you any points, time to grab up someone else until Lustboy becomes available for use next week.

Speculation Zone: Lustboy has been headed to TSM for awhile.

Let me first preface this by reinforcing that like the title states, this is speculation based on available facts. These conclusions are NOT confirmed, nor should we ever expect them to be.

It's no secret that the community at large was skeptical when TSM announced Gleeb as their new support at the start of the summer split. Gleeb was a largely unproven challenger scene support who had to fill the shoes of Xpecial, who was at the time widely regarded as one of if not the best support in the NA LCS. Despite Gleeb making a ton of progress in his 9 weeks of NA LCS play it's painfully obvious to everyone that TSM has not lived up to expectations for this split.

While TSM does sit tied for 2nd in the standings it's almost entirely off the back of being consistent against the worst teams in the league. Against the other 4 top teams TSM has a disheartening 3-9 record this split. Their inability to succeed regularly against the best teams in the league is what had many write them off the World Championship predictions entirely. It was painfully clear that if TSM wanted to have a good shot at defeating at least two of those top teams to even secure the 3rd place ticket to Worlds something had to change.

When some cryptic clues began to surface the fans went to work trying to tell what changes could be in store for TSM. What resulted was the theory that former CJ Entus Blaze support Lustboy could be joining TSM. All parties were quick to downplay the idea and many people cited the fact that it would be a terrible move to make a mid season roster swap if you're hoping to make playoffs and Worlds. After the standard round of denials things went quiet for a bit and everyone assumed it was just a rumor that got out of control, but then the funniest thing happened. This week TSM actually announced Lustboy has joined their starting roster.

Here's where the speculation comes in. It's hard to believe that those who first theorized Lustboy heading to TSM a month in advance of the announcement could have been so spot on with their prediction when it was supposedly unthinkable at the time. A more likely answer is that TSM, well aware of the dangers of a mid season roster swap the critics pointed out, began tentative talks with Lustboy a month ago. Once informed that playoffs would be at PAX again this year, and that there'd be a 2 week break between regular season and playoffs, TSM set about acquiring Lustboy with intent to delay his joining the team until the best possible date for the team.

The TSM roster while not a contender for Worlds was still a decent roster, and importantly it was still incredibly consistent against the bottom 3 teams in NA. Even a month ago it was becoming readily apparent that the TSM roster could secure at minimum the 6th playoff spot simply off the back of their victories over the lower tier teams who were starved for wins this split. So a quite sensible plan ensues, Lustboy is hired by TSM, though not publicly, with intent to delay him until TSM locks up their playoff spot or until the deadline for acquiring new players, July 29th according to the LCS rulebook. With this plan TSM could minimize potential damage of a mid season roster swap, and still have at least 3 weeks to whip the new team into shape for playoffs.

So if TSM planned this for the last month and the deadline isn't until after the next LCS week, why are they breaking out Lustboy now? Because as of their victory over compLexity last Sunday TSM has now officially locked down their playoff spot. TSM sits tied for 2nd in the NA LCS standings at 13-9 and 7th place CoL sits at 7-15. If TSM dropped all 6 remaining games, and compLexity won all 6 of their remaining games CoL could only tie TSM for 6th place. However as TSM holds the head to head record 4-0 over CoL they would automatically win the tie breaker and secure 6th place.

This is the absolute best possible time to make a mid season roster change. At the worst Lustboy cannot drag TSM down out of playoffs, and at best he could help them secure a 1st round bye by securing a top 2 position. By bringing in Lustboy now TSM has in a way gamed the LCS system. They eliminated all of the risk associated with a mid season roster swap while still having the potential for a huge payoff if it goes well.

 All the teams are quite vocal about problems in the LCS system that create this kind of loophole, and TSM owner Reginald is often credited for his shrewd roster decisions. It's unlikely that we'd ever receive confirmation that the Lustboy transfer was all planned, but one must admit it's interesting to speculate that TSM could have been planning this move for over a month.

How a gap in Najin's Shield wall let the KT Arrows slip through.

Most people going into the first quarter final were predicting KT Arrows aggressive play style to run right through an underperforming Najin White Shield. It was quite the surprise then when Najin Shield after a slow start to game 1 out played KT strategically. For the first two games of the series every time the Arrows would try to make a move for picks Shield would heavily out position and win out. The superior movement, timing, and vision of Shield that allowed them to out position the Arrows carried them to an early 2-0 lead and early on in game 3 it looked as though it would turn predictions on their heads and 3-0 the Arrows.

About 27 minutes in Shield appears to have all but won the game, they’ve built a small but comfortable 2k gold lead as well as a significant tower and vision lead. Shield’s Save on Jax has hit the two item point that allows him to just maul towers and no one on Arrows can deal with his split push yet. Even after Shield’s support gets caught out warding the Baron pit Shield is still in a great spot. Not only do they have a lead and a two item Jax, but that Jax has a full wave of minions about to smash into the bottom lane inhibitor turret as the Arrows start the Baron.

At this point Montecristo, English caster for OGN, can actually be heard saying “Shield is okay giving up this Baron for the inhibitor.” He is of course exactly right. There is no one left behind to defend and a Jax with Trinity Force and Blade of the Ruined King will easily take the tower and inhibitor before Arrows get back. At the same time Shield has 3 people poking over the Baron wall and a 4^th running from base. If Jax needs an extra second or two to escape they could easily stop backs to buy time, and if they were feeling extra confident could even try to delay Arrows long enough for Save’s Jax to shred Nexus turrets.

With the inhibitor down and the fact that Baron will not even out the gold for Arrows it would leave Shield in an excellent spot. KT is forced to defend their base against super minions and the ever present threat of a Teleporting Jax back door. If the Arrows try to make one of their trade mark aggressive plays while wearing the Baron buff they run the risk of Jax, or super minions, or both destroying their base and finishing the game, and the inhibitor will not respawn till the Baron is gone. Meanwhile Shield will be free to take vision control and eliminate the 2 remaining towers outside of KT Arrows’ base, knowing that if the Arrows contest they will lose the game. Then once the Baron has respawned Shield can use their map control and split pushing Jax to force a no win decision from the Arrows. If KT contests the Baron with no inhibitor tower to stop him Najin’s Jax will take the game by himself. If KT instead send enough people to deal with Jax’s split push they will be forced to give up the Baron buff allowing Shield to safely siege and systematically close out the game.

Instead when Montecristo gives us his wonderful quote that shows how Najin Shield can secure the victory if they play right, Save’s Jax teleports away from the turret to the Baron pit. Shield then engage with their Jungler at half HP and their support still not in range as they run back from the base after respawning. Despite these disadvantages for Shield it is actually the fact that two of their most important champions, Jax and their ADC Ezreal, end up tanking the Baron for large portions of the fight that turns it against them. They lose the fight in a very close 3-5 but stop the Baron. Not long after a second Baron fight erupts this time going much worse for Shield who were stuck without Jax, because he’d teleported into the last fight where Mundo had not, and Arrows picked up the baron off the back of a fight that went 4-1 in kills.

While this was not the only chance for Najin Shield to win the series, it was definitely the pivotal moment in the best of five between the two teams. KT Arrows were granted a stay of execution by the mistake and they used the momentum of the first win to capitalize on further mistakes in game four, Ggoong’s failed Shockwave into a failed Flash, to force a game five. In the blind pick game five KT were able to get a horrendously strong pick comp that had been banned out the previous games and use it to insurmountably snowball the final victory and the series win over a tilting Shield. 

Lee Sin, the real King of the Jungle.

Image Credit: Riot Games

It's no secret that Lee Sin is a strong jungle pick. If I asked you to name a popular competitive jungle he'd easily be one of the first to come to mind, and Lee Sin is widely regarded as one of the 3 "S tier" or best jungle picks available. Lee Sin's kit gives a lot of potential to out play and that along with the relative strength of his numbers makes him so popular. What's not so obvious though is just how utterly oppressive Lee Sin is in the jungle.

Throughout season 4 Lee Sin has enjoyed a top spot in the jungle. In spring Lee Sin and Kha'Zix teamed up to force all but themselves Elise, and Evelynn out of viability in competitive play with their insane early damage capabilities. Other junglers like VI or Jarvan simply couldn't deal with with Kha or Lee who would walk into their jungles and fight them from level 3 on. Since then Kha'Zix ate a hefty nerf that dropped him from the equation and left Lee Sin alone at the top.

Since Kha'Zix fell out of favor it has opened up junglers other than the S tier of Lee Sin, Elise, and Evelynn in competitive play but almost all of them require Lee Sin to be banned before they can safely be played. In OGN Lee has only slipped through against non S tier junglers a grand total of 6 times. While Lee does hold a 2-4 record in OGN it's all examples of skill disparity between teams, like in Samsung Blue's victory over IM#2, or heavy misplay like CJ Frost's loss to SKT T1 S. When we expand to include the LCS regions in our numbers Lee Sin's win rate grows to 12-10 over non S tier junglers this summer. A full seven of the 10 losses against non S tier junglers, including the four from OGN, are blatant examples of skill disparity or misplays.

The three losses for Lee Sin not easily explainable by blatant misplays, or by the fact it was a team that failed to advance facing a team favored by many to win OGN Summer, come at the hands of Nunu. Nunu's victory over Lee Sin shouldn't come as too much of a surprise though. The Yeti rider has always had a very binary nature in the jungle, either getting an early lead and playing flawlessly to win, or making a mistake to fall behind and lose in fantastic manner. It's why I continue to hate Nunu in the jungle when I see it picked, because few teams have the ability to play it as flawlessly as required to ensure victory.

Some might argue that Lee Sin alone is not that oppressive in the jungle considering that Evelynn and Elise hold a much more impressive 23-14 record against non S tier junglers. While those numbers are certainly more impressive it is important to notice the fact that almost universally in those games Lee Sin received a ban, usually from the team playing the non S tier jungler. What's more while they will allow Elise or Eve to make it through champ select, the teams with the best pick/ban phases almost never allow Lee to slip through when intending to play anything other than Elise, Eve, or Nunu. Samsung White, SKT K, Alliance, Fnatic, and C9 have never allowed Lee Sin through champion select when they picked any jungler other than Nunu, Eve, or Elise. Samsung Blue has only allowed it once against IM#2 who failed to escape groups, and CLG has only allowed it once but picked their non S tier jungler after seeing the enemy lock in Elise.

Lee Sin commands intense respect in champion select from top teams making him the target of dozens of picks and bans in the summer season alone. The best teams avoid the mistake of picking any jungler other than Eve, Elise, or Nunu without first guaranteeing Lee Sin is off the table. Those teams that have picked non S tier junglers into Lee rely mostly on out playing their opponents, which has worked for some like SHC and SGB, and exploded in the faces of others such as CRS and TSM. It is clear from looking at the way the best teams play champion select that this summer Lee Sin is the undisputed king of the jungle.

More mid laners should adopt Bjergsen's Scrying Orb start.

Evelynn has been a high value pick in the LCS for much of this season. She’s valued for her early power and the stealth that makes it so hard to keep track of her movements in the jungle. That stealth early game can often create strong advantages for teams forcing enemies to play safe in lane or potentially die to an invisible Evelynn popping up behind them.

It’s very difficult to counter Eve’s early pressure. Pink wards are too expensive to reasonably expect someone to purchase one at the start of the game, not to mention difficult to defend against Evelynn. You can invade and get a ward down on her camps but this is inherently dangerous. If the enemy team reacts to your invade or just walks the right way to stumble on you trying to get deep vision you can end up giving up first blood, the very thing that ward is trying to avoid. The result is most players simply play more passive against Evelynn junglers, if you don’t push up Eve has to come at you head on and it’s easier to get away.

Enter Bjergsen this super week. Twice he faced off against an Evelynn and twice he made a strong case for the blue trinket (Scrying Orb) start. The Scrying Orb reveals an area up to 2500 units away for 2 seconds on a 2 minute cool down. While the Scrying Orb does not reveal stealth it can still be invaluable in the search for information on Evelynn’s movements by revealing an enemy jungle camp.

Regardless of the state the camp is in when revealed by Scrying Orb, up, not up, actively being cleared, it is valuable info for a team. Professional junglers often study each other’s movements and can do a reasonable job of predicting each other’s movements. This means junglers can take the knowledge that Evelynn has or has not cleared the camp and use it to better estimate and predict the enemy jungler’s movements.

Taking the first item Scrying Orb comes at no cost to mid laners too. Most mid laners, even in Korea, use their ward trinkets inefficiently against Evelynns primarily because of how unsafe they have to be to drop the trinket ward somewhere it can reveal Eve. Instead we see mid laners with ward trinkets simply warding as if against a normal jungler and getting nothing from the use of it. This is likely a hold over from previous patches where the double jungle and multiple people roaming mid early was common. On the 4.10 patch such swaps have become rather uncommon as teams are favoring the standard 2v2 lanes where Evelynn thrives and the warding trinkets become superfluous.

By starting Scrying Orb instead mid laners can scout Eve’s wraith camp from just over half way up the lane, much safer than placing a trinket ward. Once a mid laner with a Scrying Orb hits the point where they want to roam they simply exchange the trinket for a sweeping lens like they normally would if they started warding trinket and go about the mid game normally.

A Scrying Orb start comes at no cost to a mid laner but grants important information against an Evelynn jungler. Looking across the premier leagues that feed directly into the World Championships, Bjergsen is the only mid laner to have made this adaptation so far. However the value for professional teams is plain to see. More mid laners should adopt the Scrying Orb start when facing Evelynn in the jungle.

The diversity of NA LCS players is surprisingly high

The LCS has existed for nearly 2 years at this point, with 8 teams battling each other each split for the top spots. With only 8 teams per split, 5 players per team, and only being in our 4th split you'd think that there's not a lot of diversity in such a small sample size, even before remembering at maximum 3 teams can be knocked out of the league at a time. However you, like myself, will probably be presently surprised when you really sit down and realize how diverse the NA LCS has been.

In two years of play the NA LCS has managed to hit many of the major racial groups with at least 1 player of each Asian, White, Black, Middle Eastern, Indian, and Hispanic descent. We've had openly gay players. We've had starters still in high school, married men, and even a parent starting for an NA LCS team. Those players have been born from over a dozen different countries including USA, Canada, Venezuela, Bulgaria, Korea, Germany, Scotland, Denmark, Belgium, The Philippines, Armenia, Isreal, and China. That's a lot of different backgrounds for a league that only allows 40 players in at a time.

Despite how good that looks we can still do better. LCS is most obviously still missing a woman player. Women are painfully lacking in esports in general as well as League, despite prominent examples like Hafu and Scarlett continuing to prove they can compete. While I won't advocate picking up someone solely for diversity's sake I do hope we as a community can do more to encourage women and any other groups still not represented in the LCS to keep trying.

In the mean time we can all be just a little bit proud of how diverse the NA LCS has been in such a short time, and hopeful that it keeps expanding in the future.