EU LCS Playoff Preview: Quarterfinals

Supa Hot Crew vs ROCCAT

Despite the fact that SHC has sat significantly higher in the standings than ROC throughout the LCS season these teams are actually a lot closer than they appear. The head to head between the teams is 2-2, ROCCAT has been improving as the split progressed and SHC has dealt with some issues and a bit of decline as the split came to an end.

When comparing the teams straight across it’s plain to see that SHC holds the better carry players. MrRallez has routinely performed strong in SHC games despite their revolving door of support players and seems able to comfortably use any ADC the team needs, where Celaver has had some noticeable gaps in what he’s comfortable on in the LCS as well as a larger number of lack luster performances. Mid lane is a similar story, Selfie often hits higher peaks on his limited champion pool, but Overpow is impossible to ban out and has far fewer low points than the somewhat tilt prone Selfie.

Meanwhile ROCCAT boasts what is arguably the best jungler in the EU LCS. It’s absolutely true that SHC’s Impaler has grown a lot from his poor showing last split but he simply pales in comparison to Jankos. Jankos has demonstrated incredible ability on all of the trinity junglers (Evelynn, Lee Sin, Elise), helped his team to generate the most first bloods in the entire LCS, and been the primary factor in ROCCAT’s tendency to have a strong early game. 

On top of their superior jungler ROC also boast a much better ability to adapt to the changing meta in recent weeks, remember ROC understood and showcased both Xerath and Maokai before they were picked up in Korea and made popular. ROC also has the better champion select phase showing similar champ select values to some of the teams with the absolute best champion selection in the world like Samsung Galaxy White, SKT T1 K, Cloud 9, and Fnatic, where SHC has repeatedly shown champion select mistakes from over valuing Jarvan to randomly defaulting back to old comfort picks like Mimer's Shyvana. 

If both teams come into this match on top form ROCCAT's superior champ select, adaptability, Jankos' ridiculous ability to generate first bloods, Selfie's tendency to tilt, and the fact MrRallez has rarely been able to solo carry a game for SHC should add up to a 3-0 result for ROCCAT. However, it's been awhile since we've seen ROC's best and I expect they'll still have some struggles with their mid game decision making. I expect SHC to take either game 1 or game 2 off ROC and make the series a close 3-1 in favor of ROCCAT.

SK Gaming vs Millenium

Just like the other quarterfinal match SK and MIL sit 2-2 in the head to head for this split, but unlike the other quarterfinal this one seems a lot more cut and dry.

SK has fallen off immensely from the start of the split where their map movement and ability to play the 2v0 double jungle meta was able to make up for their weaker laners. SK's champion select is abysmal often allowing the "OP" champions like Kass, Lee Sin, or Gragas to not only slip through but go completely unpicked even after it's become clear the "OP" champion would be a direct counter to the team comp their opponent was putting together. Similarly the meta shift towards immobile carries has had a disastrous effect on Candypanda who has demonstrated a serious issue with his team fight positioning making champions like Kogmaw even harder than it already is for SK to execute properly.

Contrast that with Millenium who spent their time between splits learning how to close games and came back a scary opponent for any team in the EU LCS. MIL has stayed rather consistent in their performances this entire split using their preference for pick comps to secure Kerp and Creaton places in the top 5 FantasyLCS scorers as well as a respectable amount of wins for the team.

I simply don't see a way for SK to win this series outside of a miracle and I'd honestly even be shocked to see them pick up 1 game. I expect MIL to sweep the series 3-0. 

Millenium hopes Kottenx can bring them a last minute miracle.

This Sunday Araneae announced with a lengthy and emotional facebook post that he was stepping down as Millenium's starting jungler. He cited the team's poor performance and his own lack of confidence and motivation as the reasoning behind the decision. Millenium were quick to follow that up with their own announcement that sub and high elo player Kottenx would be taking over the role for the remaining 6 games of the EU LCS spring split. Many fans expressed worry that such a late roster change in a critical role could be sealing Millenium's fate as the last place EU team, but there is still reasonable hope for Millenium's playoff chances or at least a more favorable relegation.

Millenium currently sits in last place at 7-15 they're two games back from the 9-13 SHC and 3 games back from the 6th place playoff spot currently held by 10-12 CW. This means that with a strong showing Millenium does still have a reasonable shot at snatching a last second playoff spot. If Kottenx can solve Millenium's late game decision making issues it's hardly unreasonable for a team in Europe to pull off a 6-0 run for the playoffs. Copenhagen Wolves much win 3 matches, or 2 if one of them is against Millenium, to lock Millenium out of the playoffs. Supa Hot Crew must win 5 games to secure their lead over Millenium.

So long as Millenium can pick up wins their hopes to at least improve their relegation chances will remain alive right to the very end. If Millenium drops the game againts CW their playoffs could be dashed immediately as CW would only need 1 more win to lock Millenium out of the top 6. Millenium is no doubt hoping the roster change keeps their playoff dreams alive but we wont find out how well it's worked until Thursday.