LCS Playoff Predictions Review

Now that LCS playoffs are over I'm going to go over my EU and NA quarterfinal predictions as well as those from Gamescom and PAX. I'm going to discuss how I made those predictions, where they went right, where they went wrong, and thoughts on each region's Worlds qualified teams.

The first big thing to talk about when discussing predictions is that it's not something you can ever expect to get 100% correct without a whole lot of luck involved. Everyone from myself to Montecristo to players who'd been scrimming the teams in the finals got some predictions wrong. Because of the limited information we all have available, and the ever present question of player's mentality day of, as well as effectiveness of training and adapting to the patch it is very hard to make anything more than a semi-confident prediction.

While predictions can never be flawless, there is a lot of information available to help improve predictions. I looked at past history between the two teams, accounted for champion select tendencies, as well as strength of team rosters and their specific play styles when making my predictions. When it was a very difficult one to call, like Fnatic vs Alliance, or Dig vs TSM I gave preference to the team which in my opinion had a stronger peak performance with their current roster. In some cases peak performance failed, like in the Dig vs TSM, but in others it helped me properly weight the matchup, as in the case of ROC vs SHC.

EU

SHC vs ROC Prediction: 3-1 ROC, Actual Result: 3-1 ROC

This series went mostly as expected. The one thing I did not expect was SHC to be capable of rallying for game 3, rather than taking an earlier game off and falling to momentum. 

SK vs MIL Prediction: 3=0 MIL, Actual Result: 3=0 SK

I have to admit to a mistake in predicting this series. I didn't give enough weight to how MIL had performed in the final week, a mistake I made multiple times throughout my predictions. I undervalued just how badly MIL had performed in week 11 vs how well SK had performed that same week. Accounting for their difference in results should have adjusted my prediction to a 3-2 in MIL's favor. That prediction still would have been different from the results, but it would have better fallen in line with how the teams had performed throughout the season and accounted for their results only a week before their series. 

SHC vs MIL Prediction: 3-1 SHC, Actual Result: 3-0 SHC

I feel pretty good about this prediction. While I didn't get it exact I correctly noted that if either team went 2-0 up they'd sweep and correctly gave the edge to SHC. I didn't really adjust predictions going into this series, though I likely gave MIL too much credit in spite of their recent performances. 

Fnatic vs ROC Prediction: 3-1 FNC, Actual Result: 3-2 FNC

I'll be honest even as a Roccat fan I never expected them to put up such a wild fight against Fnatic in the semi-finals at gamescom. Overall I feel good about the prediction, Roccat showed up and pushed Fnatic further than most people thought they could and they deserve praise for it, but I think it would have been a bit fanboyish of me to have blindly predicted such a crazy series. 

ALL vs SK Prediction: 3-1 ALL, Actual Result: 3-1 ALL

Nailed it. 

ROC vs SK Prediction: 3-2 ROC, Actual Result: 3-0 SK

This is one of those series that makes it clear why predictions just don't end up being 100% correct without a lot of luck. Roccat has had better champion select than SK for a long time, the teams share a lot of the same problems avoiding either team having obvious significant edges, and ROC had just proved against Fnatic that they were on point at Gamescom and should have pushed SK to the limit. While ROC may not have taken it in the end this series really should have gone all 5 games. Instead Roccat appeared to have spent everything just trying to make it past Fnatic and when they failed they fell apart for the series against SK. 

ALL vs FNC Prediction: 3-2 FNC, Actual Result: 3-1 ALL

While Alliance did hold the head ot head 3-1 over Fnatic this split it felt in large part thanks to Fnatic's All Stars slump at the start. Fnatic was simply not showing up the first few weeks in a lot of peoples opinions. When Fnatic did finally turn it on near the end of the split they were hands down playing on par with Alliance, while having a better champion select phase. Fnatic's superior champion select and the fact they were defending 3 time EU LCS champions weighed it in Fnatic's favor. Instead just like Roccat, it seemed Fnatic was forced to burn everything they had just to make it to the finals against Alliance. I feel like this was another example where a prediction fell apart due to team mentality day of more than incorrectly assessing past results. 

NA

TSM vs Dig Prediction: 3-2 Dig, Actual Result: 3-1 TSM

I feel like not weighing Dig's final week results into this is less of a mistake than it was for MIL's games, but still a definite mistake. I think if I'd retained that lesson from the EU playoffs I might have weighted the series 3-2 for TSM instead of Dig. 

Curse vs CLG Prediction 3-1 CLG, Actual Result: 3-0 Curse

Unlike with Dig I don't think weighing in CLG's performance issues would have been a smart move for this series considering they hadn't been seen since week 10 and spent nearly a month in Korea. By all measure this series should not have gone the way it did. The last time CLG spent a few weeks with coach Montecristo in house they had a dominant performance and sat near the top of the NA LCS standings. Add to that the fact they were practicing in Korea against better scrim partners and it's difficult to reasonably argue that we should have expected CLG to lose, much less fall apart, this series.

Dig vs CLG Prediction: 3-1 CLG, Actual Result: 3-1 Dig

Again I think it would have been a bit unreasonable to predict differently here. Dig's singular working strategy against TSM succeeded thanks to a lack of aggression from TSM, something that CLG had not lacked against Curse even if it hadn't created a win. Dig's champion select also made progressively less sense against TSM where CLG seemed to actually be pulling themselves together a bit over the course of the series but were let down by their actual play and decision making. 

LMQ vs TSM Prediction: 3-0 LMQ, Actual Result 3-2 TSM

Another good example of day of performance making predictions a bit of a crap shoot. TSM did not look any better than they had all split long against Dignitas and LMQ had had their number every time they matched up. I'd hazard to say anyone who predicted this match in TSM's favor after watching TSM vs DIG is guilty of fanboying a bit. The only vaguely reasonable reason to predict difficulty for LMQ was the ownership drama they'd recently been through. Even that didn't seem enough to so heavily set them back though. 

C9 vs Curse Prediction: 3-2 C9, Actual Result: 3-0 C9

Cloud9 is probably the only team I didn't give enough credit to in playoffs this split. Curse had been surging like crazy, there were parallels to other similar team styles matching against each other. I thought that plus C9's continued struggles throughout the split was enough to make it a close match. I did not give the C9 dominance enough credit, peak C9 showed up this series when I didn't think it would and it rolled over Curse. 

Due to there being no break on the weekends and me writing my predictions before hand I didn't make actual predictions for TSM vs C9 or LMQ vs Curse. I didn't expect TSM to come out ahead of LMQ. On twitter though I predicted LMQ taking it over Curse and C9 3-0ing TSM again due to TSM still not looking better against LMQ. I was very happy to be wrong about C9 vs TSM. All credit must be given to TSM for finally looking like a team that could contest for 1st place against C9, both teams played very strong matches and TSM came out the victor.

So there you have it, how I made my predictions, where I think I went wrong, and where I think the unpredictable factors in League made a difference. I intend to make similar predictions for Worlds once more information on matchups are released and hopefully the lessons learned from looking over my predictions this way will mean more accurate predictions in the future.

NA LCS Playoff Preview: PAX

Fifth Place

Counter Logic Gaming vs Dignitas

This is definitely not the 5th place match I was expecting. I predicted both of these teams to win, because both have had the stronger peak performances this split and that is often an important factor when teams get ample time to prepare for a series like this. That same method is how I correctly predicted Roccat beating out SHC in europe, sadly Dig and CLG did not live up to expectations. I will say that Dig came much closer to what I predicted from them than CLG did though.

After watching the quarterfinals this game became rather hard to call. Dignitas had some good team comp ideas but their execution was abysmal. Even in game 1 their split push efforts worked more due to TSM's indecisive shot calling rather than anything specific Dig did, they lost most of the 4v4 split fights but weren't punished for that by TSM. All 4 games Dig had poor team fighting and abysmal vision control against TSM. The main redeeming quality for Dig, apart from Zion's singular adventure in split pushing, was Crumbzz's undeniable baron dominance even going so far as to win a smite war against a Nunu.

CLG on the other hand completely collapsed in their first outing back from Korea. Their game 1 team comp made no sense, running the binary, lane dependent Nunu with 3 losing lanes was doomed from the get go. It only looked vaguely competitive because Curse was struggling to hit their own stride in game 1. Game 2 CLG again seemed to have no idea what they were doing giving Curse repeats on the important parts of their team comp and then giving up multiple early game dragons to set Quas behind while Cop and Voyboy were allowed to become fed monsters with no contest. It wasn't until game 3 that CLG finally appeared to wake up finally banning and picking okay but it wasn't enough as Curse out maneuvered them lvl 1 to get a 3 buff start for Nunu and then compounded their advantage via a misstep from CLG around dragon to close out the series in dominant fashion.

Both teams leading into this are shadows of their former selves and absolutely deserve to land in the 5th place match from the way they played that series. I think objectively though, the edge goes to CLG just barely. While CLG was definitely not playing optimally in their series, they were definitely decisive in their movements. A lack of decisive calls was the only thing that allowed Dig to take a game off TSM and CLG is unlikely to make the mistake of letting Zion split push unanswered. I expect the series to go much like their regular season head to head, 3-1 in favor of CLG. 

Semi-Finals

LMQ vs Team Solo Mid

While my quarter finals preview may not have correctly picked the winner, what I was right about was just how insanely close the series would be between TSM and Dignitas and that to me spells disaster for TSM against second seeded LMQ. 

LMQ did not lose practice from someone renewing their visa, has had a better grasp on new patches, has shown much stronger champion select throughout the split, and they have not dropped a single game to TSM so far. Some people claim LMQ has little experience with best of series but that's also not true as they played several in the challenger scene on their road to the LCS and never once dropped a series. The worst LMQ has performed in a best of series is dropping singular games to the 2nd best challenger team in NA at the time, and it was always obvious over confidence that made them slip up in the one game they lost before tightening right back up and obliterating the remainder of a series. TSM's "historically strong playoff performances" are also utterly irrelevant to the conversation as Wildturtle and Dyrus are the only members still on the team that have seen more than one previous playoffs with TSM. All in all, after watching TSM's sloppy performance against Dignitas the only vague hope they have against LMQ is to pray the recent ownership kerfuffle around LMQ has caused the players significant issues in practice and mentality. 

I really don't think TSM has much hope outside of picking up a single game from LMQ over confidence. I'm calling 3-1 LMQ. 

Cloud9 vs Curse

I will admit despite their 3-1 finish to the season I gave Curse very little credit going into playoffs, but when you consider they had only 5 wins in the first half of the season (14 games!) I'm less crazy than I probably seem now that they've 3-0d into the semi-finals.

Before Curse showed up against CLG I'd have called this series 3-0 for Cloud9 and moved on. Even if C9 has lost a bit of their dominance this split they've retained the exquisite champion select and strong team play that keeps them on top. However C9 has exploitable weaknesses in their early game, a place Curse has been quite strong this split, and more than one of C9's losses have been them getting so far behind early that they simply couldn't catch back up.

We also have an interestingly similar situation recently happen in OGN. KTA a notoriously early game team came up against Samsung Blue a team with weaker early game made up for with strong team play. In the OGN version (SPOILERS!) KTA took the match by forcing it to a game 5 blind pick where they've always had an edge. The NA LCS is now giving us the Hollywood remake in C9 vs Curse, but where KTA pushed to a game 5 blind pick Curse can't so easily force an advantageous situation for them. Cloud9 also does not suffer from the occasional champion select weaknesses SGB has exhibited this season.

If Curse digs down deep and pulls out all their tricks I would not be surprised to see KTA vs SGB 2 Electric Boogaloo C9 vs Curse go 5 games, but I think in the end Cloud9 will still come out on top. I predict 3-2 C9.

Third Place

Team Solo Mid vs Curse

Despite a different team winning than what I predicted, TSM vs DIG still went very much how I expected, super close for no good reason. Meanwhile Curse played better than expected against CLG despite a shaky game 1 and were able to close it out 3-0 which gives me a lot more confidence in this match for Curse.

Throughout the split TSM had this match in their pocket. TSM was the one team Curse just couldn't seem to get a handle on, no matter what they brought to the table TSM walked away with the W. That was until the final week of the regular season. In their 4th and final match up of the regular season Curse absolutely demolished TSM in a 32 minute game. Curse moved from that result to shaping up fast against CLG 3-0 and are now moving into the final weekend of games at PAX looking absolutely on fire. With their strong early game now turning into commanding performances from Cop and Voyboy it seems likely that if Curse can keep their heads in it after losing to C9 that they will dominate a TSM that still hasn't changed after 32 games.

Where Curse looks on fire TSM looks stuck in a rut. Amazing still does not look comfortable outside of his Lee Sin and Elise, dropping a smite war as Nunu and securing zero of the first nine barons against Dignitas in their quarterfinal series. Dyrus seems mostly stuck in the same old champions from the middle of the split reverting to Lulu for most of the games against Dig, and the inclusion of Lustboy has not done much to get Wildturtle out of his slump.

If Curse can deal with the disappointment of losing to C9 it's hard to see how this series can end up in any result other than 3-0 (maybe 3-1) in Curse's favor.

Finals

Cloud9 vs LMQ

Despite Cloud9's struggles that started with Hai's hospitalization, and the hype around Chinese imports LMQ, Cloud9 actually holds the upper hand the head to head 3-1.

Both teams are top of the pile right now and it's easy to see why as their rosters hold a lot of the top 2 players in the region for each position. The real difference between the teams is in how they play. LMQ is unbridled aggression, they ward ahead of them, not behind, they dive your tower, they come at you and they kill you. That same aggression is also sometimes their down fall as it sometimes leads to tunneling on a poor dragon fight or a bad tower dive giving up what advantage LMQ may have gained. Cloud9 is a whole other beast, they like controlled purposeful strikes. Fights with a purpose are the only ones C9 desires, if they can't turn a team fight into a dragon, baron, or tower they're just as happy to fall back and let you pass. 

So far Cloud9's controlled style has won out giving them the lead in the head to head, which means in this series the real decider will be the team's ability to adapt in a best of 5. As of this writing C9 has never been pushed to a 4th game by any team in NA. They have gone to Playoffs #1 seed twice before and have dropped zero games in playoffs. Their record is not as spotless in international tournaments, but they have still proven their ability to change and adapt even outside NA.

LMQ has faced plenty of series before, unlike what many people claimed. However LMQ's multitude of series in the challenger scene is nothing compared to the level of competition they can expect to face against Cloud9. Even against challenger scene teams LMQ dropped some games due to tunneling on Baron or Dragon too hard. LMQ has proven that a bad loss does not rattle them, and that they can adapt in a best of series, but they will have to prove they can keep their play tight and champ select strong against the defending champions.

This series is difficult to call due to how strong both teams are and the differences in play style between single games and a best of 5 series. I think whoever no matter what whoever is the first to go 2 games up will take the series, and due to their head to head I think that team will be C9. I predict C9 3-1. 

NA LCS Playoff Preview: Quarterfinals

Team Solo Mid vs Dignitas

Honestly this series feels like it's going to be much closer than it has any right being. On paper Dignitas is clearly the better team. From adapting to new OP picks, to their sensible picks and bans, to their their often incredible early game roams from Kiwikid, Dig should be considered the clear favorite. What's more Dignitas holds the head to head match up 3-1 over TSM in the regular season. All of that and I still haven't mentioned that TSM lost nearly a week of practice with Amazing in Europe renewing his visa. Still, I can't help but feel the series is tough to call.

Dignitas has hit much better peaks throughout this split; but TSM has been far more consistent. Both teams suffer from serious mistakes in their mid-late game vision and decision making, but TSM has more consistently been able to persevere through those mistakes against the lower tier NA teams. In the end the deciding factor is likely to be champion select, a place that Dignitas has been superior throughout this split. Dig understands both the must pick champions and the weaknesses in TSM's lineup such as Amazing's tendency to fall apart when pushed off the trinity junglers. Dig's tendency to better understand champion select, combined with Amazing losing a week of practice, Lustboy's limited English, and WildTurtle's continued struggles in bot lane should all add together to out weigh Dignitoss' tendency to make poor decisions around Baron.

The inconsistency of both teams is likely to make the series go 5 games. In the end I think Dignitas should take it 3-2.

Curse vs Counter Logic Gaming

Perhaps it's my CLG fan showing through but this series honestly feels like it's CLG's to lose even in the face of Curse's late season surge and 3-1 head to head record against CLG.

Curse surged in the final weeks as CLG slumped, using some interesting strategies like the AD Ttristana mid to snatch a last second 4th place end of the regular season. While Curse has hit their high point pulling out somewhat unusual strategies, CLG's peak this split was entirely about them strategically out playing even the best of NA all across the map. The strategic and rotational play that made CLG a force to be reckoned with during the regular season is what CLG went to Korea to regain. CLG's peak performance this split was unquestionably superior to that of Curse in both map movement and vision control. Now though not only could CLG come back with their slump issues solved, but they've spent the last few weeks learning from some of the best teams in the world while Curse has only had NA opponents to scrim. CLG has all the available tools to bring about a dominant performance in this series, it is simply up to them to use those tools.

While a renewed CLG does have everything it needs to dominate this match up, I don't think it will be a 3-0. There is something to be said for Curse's ability to surprise in champ select. The surprises Curse may have in store could go a long way towards getting them at least 1 game even against Super Saiyan CLG. As a result I predict the series to go 3-1 in favor of CLG. 

EU LCS Playoff Preview: Gamescom

Fifth Place

Supa Hot Crew vs Millenium

I'll be honest I was not expecting this to be the 5th place match. I expected the MIL we had seen for 10 weeks in the regular season to show up and crush a slumping SK. Instead SK still looked kinda slumpy in game 1 but not enough for whatever the heck MIL was doing to be successful. Now we have two teams with really bad champion select phase in the midst of slumps facing off and it's honestly really hard to call. 

Both SHC and MIL face a lot of the same problems, kinda tilty mid laners, tops who fall back to old comfort picks that aren't in the current meta, Jungler's who insist on running tier 2 picks even when the trinity junglers are left open, shaky map control in the mid game, and gods awful champ select. Looking at their head to head doesn't help much either as they sit 2-2. 

I think if either team gets a 2-0 lead the series will be a sweep, but otherwise it'll likely go 3-1. I'm giving the slight edge to SHC simply because MrRallez is more consistent than Creaton right now, and while Rallez doesn't often carry games for SHC up against MIL where the rest of the teams are relatively even he could put the team on his back. 

Semi-Finals

ROCCAT vs Fnatic

I was on the ROC hype train for the quarterfinals and if you don't remember I nailed that prediction, but Fnatic is a whole other ball game. Fnatic holds the head to head against ROC 4-0 which should really give a preview of my prediction.

ROC's champion select skill is really what carried them through against SHC but if I had to pick one team in Europe that had as good or better champion select right now, that team would be Fnatic. Fnatic has the best bot lane in EU, Soaz can absolutely handle himself or even beat Xaxus in top, and while xPeke might not be considered the best mid in EU right now he'll definitely out perform Overpow. All ROC has going for them in this match up is the demi-god of the jungle Jankos, but when all his lanes are in trouble without Cyanide interfering it will be hard for Jankos to do much of anything. 

I think because it's a series there's a reasonable chance of ROC taking a game off Fnatic with proper adapting in champion select, but the series is almost assuredly going to end in Fnatic's favor. I predict 3-1 Fnatic.

Alliance vs SK Gaming

SK absolutely looked better than expected against SHC, but problems with their champion select and early-mid game decision making were still apparent. Going against the top seeded team in the EU LCS it's hard to see how SK can come out ahead. 

Alliance really holds all the cards this match up. Froggen will dominate Jesiz in mid, Candypanda will be hard pressed to come out on top of Tabzz, and while Shook has some issues with Jungle prioritization Svenskeren has the same issues but without the part where it somehow works. However Alliance does have a slight problem with closing out games, this entire split they've allowed obviously won games to go on an extra 10 minutes and against a team like SK that is rather good in the late game that can be a problem if SK can stall a game to that point.  

It would not be surprising to see Alliance's tendency to let games go on too long result in them dropping a game to SK, but otherwise I expect them to take the series quite handily. 3-1 Alliance. 

Third Place

ROCCAT vs SK Gaming

 This should honestly be the closest match outside the finals in EU.

Both teams are surging out of slumps, both teams have experience with best of 5 series. SK has the superior carry laners Jesiz is far from the best in EU but Overpow is arguably the weakest individual player, similarly Candypanda has his positional problems but his champion diversity and skill ceiling are greater than Celaver. Just like against SHC though, ROC have a far superior jungler, stronger support player, and equal or possibly better top laner. ROCCAT also have a superior champion select though the advantage is not nearly as strong as it was for them against SHC, it could still end up being a deciding factor in a few of the games.

This series should be very close with things like how well Jankos can pressure early, and how Candypanda is performing being critically important. I honestly expect it to go all 5 games, I want to say ROC take it 3-2 but that prediction is just barely. I absolutely would not be surprised to see it go 3-2 in SK's favor.

Finals

Fnatic vs Alliance

I don't think I'm shocking anyone by predicting the two best teams in EU LCS end up facing each other for top seed at Worlds, this match has been heavily predicted for a few weeks now, even more so once both locked up the bye for quarterfinals. 

Alliance currently holds the head to head 3-1 over Fnatic, and they have Froggen living up to the hype as the best mid laner in EU going for them. Still, you have to bet on Fnatic for this series. Fnatic has more experience in best of series than Alliance, they've been together longer, they have the edge in champion select with Cyanide better understanding the jungle than Shook, and to top it off Fnatic is the defending 3 time LCS split champions. 

I think Alliance will put up a monumental fight and make the series quite close, but I do think Fnatic will take it 3-2. 

Chances at Worlds

The format for Worlds has been announced and this year will have all teams participating in the group stages, 4 groups of 4 with the top 2 of each group advancing to the bracket stage. That means getting the first seed won't give Fnatic a bye straight into the group stage like it did last year, but it does mean Fnatic would avoid facing the #1 seed from NA, Korea, or China which can be invaluable. Both Fnatic and Alliance are strong enough to escape groups, especially if they're lucky enough to land in one of the groups with only 1 team from Korea/China. The EU 3rd place team, regardless if it's ROC or SK is unlikely to advance in my opinion, but that's okay because the group stage experience will still be incredibly valuable to them and if they make good use of it they could come back an even scarier team for the spring split. 

EU LCS Playoff Preview: Quarterfinals

Supa Hot Crew vs ROCCAT

Despite the fact that SHC has sat significantly higher in the standings than ROC throughout the LCS season these teams are actually a lot closer than they appear. The head to head between the teams is 2-2, ROCCAT has been improving as the split progressed and SHC has dealt with some issues and a bit of decline as the split came to an end.

When comparing the teams straight across it’s plain to see that SHC holds the better carry players. MrRallez has routinely performed strong in SHC games despite their revolving door of support players and seems able to comfortably use any ADC the team needs, where Celaver has had some noticeable gaps in what he’s comfortable on in the LCS as well as a larger number of lack luster performances. Mid lane is a similar story, Selfie often hits higher peaks on his limited champion pool, but Overpow is impossible to ban out and has far fewer low points than the somewhat tilt prone Selfie.

Meanwhile ROCCAT boasts what is arguably the best jungler in the EU LCS. It’s absolutely true that SHC’s Impaler has grown a lot from his poor showing last split but he simply pales in comparison to Jankos. Jankos has demonstrated incredible ability on all of the trinity junglers (Evelynn, Lee Sin, Elise), helped his team to generate the most first bloods in the entire LCS, and been the primary factor in ROCCAT’s tendency to have a strong early game. 

On top of their superior jungler ROC also boast a much better ability to adapt to the changing meta in recent weeks, remember ROC understood and showcased both Xerath and Maokai before they were picked up in Korea and made popular. ROC also has the better champion select phase showing similar champ select values to some of the teams with the absolute best champion selection in the world like Samsung Galaxy White, SKT T1 K, Cloud 9, and Fnatic, where SHC has repeatedly shown champion select mistakes from over valuing Jarvan to randomly defaulting back to old comfort picks like Mimer's Shyvana. 

If both teams come into this match on top form ROCCAT's superior champ select, adaptability, Jankos' ridiculous ability to generate first bloods, Selfie's tendency to tilt, and the fact MrRallez has rarely been able to solo carry a game for SHC should add up to a 3-0 result for ROCCAT. However, it's been awhile since we've seen ROC's best and I expect they'll still have some struggles with their mid game decision making. I expect SHC to take either game 1 or game 2 off ROC and make the series a close 3-1 in favor of ROCCAT.

SK Gaming vs Millenium

Just like the other quarterfinal match SK and MIL sit 2-2 in the head to head for this split, but unlike the other quarterfinal this one seems a lot more cut and dry.

SK has fallen off immensely from the start of the split where their map movement and ability to play the 2v0 double jungle meta was able to make up for their weaker laners. SK's champion select is abysmal often allowing the "OP" champions like Kass, Lee Sin, or Gragas to not only slip through but go completely unpicked even after it's become clear the "OP" champion would be a direct counter to the team comp their opponent was putting together. Similarly the meta shift towards immobile carries has had a disastrous effect on Candypanda who has demonstrated a serious issue with his team fight positioning making champions like Kogmaw even harder than it already is for SK to execute properly.

Contrast that with Millenium who spent their time between splits learning how to close games and came back a scary opponent for any team in the EU LCS. MIL has stayed rather consistent in their performances this entire split using their preference for pick comps to secure Kerp and Creaton places in the top 5 FantasyLCS scorers as well as a respectable amount of wins for the team.

I simply don't see a way for SK to win this series outside of a miracle and I'd honestly even be shocked to see them pick up 1 game. I expect MIL to sweep the series 3-0. 

How a gap in Najin's Shield wall let the KT Arrows slip through.

Most people going into the first quarter final were predicting KT Arrows aggressive play style to run right through an underperforming Najin White Shield. It was quite the surprise then when Najin Shield after a slow start to game 1 out played KT strategically. For the first two games of the series every time the Arrows would try to make a move for picks Shield would heavily out position and win out. The superior movement, timing, and vision of Shield that allowed them to out position the Arrows carried them to an early 2-0 lead and early on in game 3 it looked as though it would turn predictions on their heads and 3-0 the Arrows.

About 27 minutes in Shield appears to have all but won the game, they’ve built a small but comfortable 2k gold lead as well as a significant tower and vision lead. Shield’s Save on Jax has hit the two item point that allows him to just maul towers and no one on Arrows can deal with his split push yet. Even after Shield’s support gets caught out warding the Baron pit Shield is still in a great spot. Not only do they have a lead and a two item Jax, but that Jax has a full wave of minions about to smash into the bottom lane inhibitor turret as the Arrows start the Baron.

At this point Montecristo, English caster for OGN, can actually be heard saying “Shield is okay giving up this Baron for the inhibitor.” He is of course exactly right. There is no one left behind to defend and a Jax with Trinity Force and Blade of the Ruined King will easily take the tower and inhibitor before Arrows get back. At the same time Shield has 3 people poking over the Baron wall and a 4^th running from base. If Jax needs an extra second or two to escape they could easily stop backs to buy time, and if they were feeling extra confident could even try to delay Arrows long enough for Save’s Jax to shred Nexus turrets.

With the inhibitor down and the fact that Baron will not even out the gold for Arrows it would leave Shield in an excellent spot. KT is forced to defend their base against super minions and the ever present threat of a Teleporting Jax back door. If the Arrows try to make one of their trade mark aggressive plays while wearing the Baron buff they run the risk of Jax, or super minions, or both destroying their base and finishing the game, and the inhibitor will not respawn till the Baron is gone. Meanwhile Shield will be free to take vision control and eliminate the 2 remaining towers outside of KT Arrows’ base, knowing that if the Arrows contest they will lose the game. Then once the Baron has respawned Shield can use their map control and split pushing Jax to force a no win decision from the Arrows. If KT contests the Baron with no inhibitor tower to stop him Najin’s Jax will take the game by himself. If KT instead send enough people to deal with Jax’s split push they will be forced to give up the Baron buff allowing Shield to safely siege and systematically close out the game.

Instead when Montecristo gives us his wonderful quote that shows how Najin Shield can secure the victory if they play right, Save’s Jax teleports away from the turret to the Baron pit. Shield then engage with their Jungler at half HP and their support still not in range as they run back from the base after respawning. Despite these disadvantages for Shield it is actually the fact that two of their most important champions, Jax and their ADC Ezreal, end up tanking the Baron for large portions of the fight that turns it against them. They lose the fight in a very close 3-5 but stop the Baron. Not long after a second Baron fight erupts this time going much worse for Shield who were stuck without Jax, because he’d teleported into the last fight where Mundo had not, and Arrows picked up the baron off the back of a fight that went 4-1 in kills.

While this was not the only chance for Najin Shield to win the series, it was definitely the pivotal moment in the best of five between the two teams. KT Arrows were granted a stay of execution by the mistake and they used the momentum of the first win to capitalize on further mistakes in game four, Ggoong’s failed Shockwave into a failed Flash, to force a game five. In the blind pick game five KT were able to get a horrendously strong pick comp that had been banned out the previous games and use it to insurmountably snowball the final victory and the series win over a tilting Shield. 

EU LCS playoff recap

Everyone came to EU LCS playoffs expecting big things after the incredibly close regular season and boy did they deliver. Underdogs rose to the challenge, old powerhouses were toppled, and surprising trends continued, and I've got it all in one enormous recap.

\Day One:

Copenhagen Wolves vs Alliance:
Alliance were the heavy favorites coming into this game. They had been on a strong up turn as the season rounded out and Copenhagen Wolves were still struggling with closing out their games.

It's safe to say everyone sat up and took notice when game 1 saw Copenhagen Wolves take command from the beginning and never let go. The 4 man stack lane swap initiated by Alliance did not work out for them as they wound up falling far behind the tower pushing might of Jax and Xin Zhao allowing CW to take an inhibitor turret in under 5 minutes compared to Alliances 2 towers. The constant threat of teleport Jax taking the exposed inhibitor was too much for Alliance and they simply never recovered. Game 1 went in strong fashion to Copenhagen Wolves.

Games two and three fell more in line with everyone's predictions, Alliance banned away the Jax and picked dual late game monsters Karthus and Ryze. Alliance's late game focused, wave clear heavy, composition simply out farmed and out scaled Copenhagen Wolves. Alliance's starvation tactics worked and they were able to take the series 2-1 and advance to face Fnatic in the semi-finals.

Roccat vs Gambit Gaming:
Gambit seems to always be a favorite heading into any tournament. Regardless of how poorly Gambit might be performing leading into an event talk of Gambit's legendary boot camps will come up and the phrase "You can never count Gambit out" will be used. After their performance this week we might see the end of that sentiment.

Roccat played their strategy perfectly, with Jankos applying tremendous jungle pressure in the early game and the late game allowing Xaxus on Jax to split push. Gambit in comparison simply fell apart, terrible vision control, poor rotations, mispositioned fights, and worst of all they completely failed to adapt to Roccat's composition in champion select. Game two would see Roccat allowed all but one of their champions from the previous game, and another complete domination of Gambit sending Roccat to face SK in the semi-finals.

Day Two:

Fnatic vs Alliance:
Thanks to their 2nd place finish in the regular season Fnatic had a first bye and it was clear they made strong use of it preparing for Alliance. The result was a phenomenal slugfest between the two teams.

Game one saw Fnatic demonstrating a powerful understanding of the late game scaling composition Alliance had used against Copenhagen Wolves the day before. Fnatic let Karthus and Ryze both go to Alliance and picked themselves up a shields and heals composition with Soraka, Kayle, and Janna. The mass of extra survivability in Fnatic's team overwhelmed the sustained damage focused Alliance team making it impossible for Ryze and Karthus to be the carrying factors they had been against Cophenhagen Wolves.

After Fnatic's game one victory Alliance adapted fast banning out the linchpin of the survival comp Soraka, and bringing an AoE burst team with Ziggs and Twitch. Fnatic attempted to revive the mid lane Zed coupled with a top lane lulu to bring a heavy split push composition. Zed would falter to the heavily buffed Exhaust and Fnatic simply could not hold up to Alliance's incredible AoE burst resulting in the series being tied up at one game apiece.

Alliance lost a ban due to making a champion trade too late in game 2 as a result the Nidalee that had seen purple side bans in both previous games slipped through. Alliance secured themselves Jax and attempted to put together a pick/split push team but their primarily melee champions were no match for the long range poke and disengage heavy Fnatic composition. Fnatic would ride xPeke's Nidalee spears to a 2-1 victory over Alliance and a ticket to the grand finals.

SK Gaming vs Roccat:
Despite Roccat's strong performance the day before SK remained the favorite for this face-off due to their hefty 3-1 record over Roccat in the regular season as well as SK's first place regular season finish.

Despite their favored status SK did not seem as together for their first game as Fnatic had, they allowed Roccat to get the entire trio of Jax, Elise, and Thresh that had carried Roccat to dominant victory over Gambit on day one. The game played out very similarly to the Gambit games as Jankos' Elise put heavy pressure on the lanes, Xaxus laid down heavy split push pressure with Jax, and Vander continued to make incredible plays with his Thresh.

SK didn't take the loss lying down they came back with a clear plan in champion select banning away Thresh and Jax in both subsequent games. With comfort champions removed Roccat seemed to fall apart, making awkward calls to chase for kills giving up objectives in the process. Jankos especially failed to live up to his previous performance as he strayed away from the still free Elise onto Kha'Zix and Xin Zhao, neither of whom gave him the play making power he'd had with the spider queen. The series went 2-1 to SK and meant we'd get an "El Classico" Fnatic vs SK grand finals.

Gambit Gaming vs Copenhagen Wolves:
Due to the length of the previous two Bo3 series this fight to avoid relegation went late into the evening and it seemed to weigh heavily on both teams.

All three games were filled with poor decision making, terrible vision control, awkward rotations, and incredibly obvious mistakes. By the time Gambit finally closed out the series 2-1 we had witnessed the worst display of professional League of Legends this entire split and both teams seemed deserving of relegation. CW will have to work fast if they want to defeat Denial Esports to stay in the LCS next split, and Gambit desperately needs to sort out their recent problems if they want any hope of attending the World Championship in Korea this season.

Day Three

Roccat vs Alliance:
This series was the fight for 3rd place but sadly it seemed that after their loss to Fnatic the day before Alliance had checked out for this series, a thought later confirmed by some of the Alliance players on twitter.

The games were nowhere near bad, but Alliance made a few poor decisions each game allowing Roccat to take firm control including giving Jankos his Elise, trying to counter Trundle with damage heavy Renekton build, and reacting to Roccat's picks in game two by giving Vander back his Thresh comfort pick. All in all Roccat simply played both games better securing themselves the 3rd place title for the EU LCS spring split.

El Classico, Fnatic vs SK Gaming:
This matchup has been dubbed "El Classico" due to it being one of the oldest rivalries in esports spanning several years and numerous esport titles so everyone was sure we were in for a treat and boy did it deliver.

Game one Fnatic brought Leblanc, Kha'Zix, and Lee Sin for a strong pick composition that allowed them to dominate the early game. Fnatic would snowball the early lead into 3 barons and a slow but definitive game one victory. SK did a good job of slowing Fnatic down holding out against 2 barons with their wave clear before finally falling. During the match I took the time to point out once again how an Ohmwrecker for Fnatic would have been an optimal purchase and due to their sizable gold lead could have allowed them to close out the game a good 10 minutes earlier than what they ended up doing.

Game two SK brought a heavy team fight composition against Fnatic's favored Nidalee centric poke team. It seemed to go well for SK as they took advantage of an early mistake by Fnatic to control the game and exploited the fact that poke comps struggle when they fall behind. Unfortunately for SK they were never runaway with the game ahead of Fnatic, and as a result we all learned a valuable lesson about picking your battles. SK engaged a fight over the wight wall top lane. Disasterously both Jesiz and Candypanda, SK's two carries, could not follow the rest of the team over the wall and the fight went horribly for SK. Fnatic not only turned around that fight but immediately secured Baron and a gold lead off the back of it. A single bad engage from SK gave the game away and Fnatic went 2-0 up in the best of five series.

Game three Fnatic were back to purple side and banned out the Nidalee themselves as they'd been doing all playoffs long. Instead they tried again for the shield heavy comp, but SK's burst heavy Orianna Twitch combination and a poor level 1 lane swap call from Fnatic spelled doom for Fnatic. SK out rotated Fnatic at every turn and methodically worked their way to the nexus to force a game 4.

Game four Fnatic again secured their poke disengage team comp they'd been so successful with. This time they avoided the early mistake they'd made before. Strong mechanical play from Fnatic secured them an early lead and again we saw just how hard it is to deal with a poke comp once it was ahead. Fnatic would again ride xPeke's spears to a series victory securing their third straight 1st place finish in the EU LCS and a ticket to the Paris All Star invitational.

With Fnatic's playoff victory secured yet again they proved they really do have what it takes to perform when it counts. They also had the bonus side effect of now ensuring all 3 World Champion franchises would participate in the Paris All Star invitational as both TPA and SKT T1 K were already confirmed to attend.