LCS Playoff Predictions Review

Now that LCS playoffs are over I'm going to go over my EU and NA quarterfinal predictions as well as those from Gamescom and PAX. I'm going to discuss how I made those predictions, where they went right, where they went wrong, and thoughts on each region's Worlds qualified teams.

The first big thing to talk about when discussing predictions is that it's not something you can ever expect to get 100% correct without a whole lot of luck involved. Everyone from myself to Montecristo to players who'd been scrimming the teams in the finals got some predictions wrong. Because of the limited information we all have available, and the ever present question of player's mentality day of, as well as effectiveness of training and adapting to the patch it is very hard to make anything more than a semi-confident prediction.

While predictions can never be flawless, there is a lot of information available to help improve predictions. I looked at past history between the two teams, accounted for champion select tendencies, as well as strength of team rosters and their specific play styles when making my predictions. When it was a very difficult one to call, like Fnatic vs Alliance, or Dig vs TSM I gave preference to the team which in my opinion had a stronger peak performance with their current roster. In some cases peak performance failed, like in the Dig vs TSM, but in others it helped me properly weight the matchup, as in the case of ROC vs SHC.

EU

SHC vs ROC Prediction: 3-1 ROC, Actual Result: 3-1 ROC

This series went mostly as expected. The one thing I did not expect was SHC to be capable of rallying for game 3, rather than taking an earlier game off and falling to momentum. 

SK vs MIL Prediction: 3=0 MIL, Actual Result: 3=0 SK

I have to admit to a mistake in predicting this series. I didn't give enough weight to how MIL had performed in the final week, a mistake I made multiple times throughout my predictions. I undervalued just how badly MIL had performed in week 11 vs how well SK had performed that same week. Accounting for their difference in results should have adjusted my prediction to a 3-2 in MIL's favor. That prediction still would have been different from the results, but it would have better fallen in line with how the teams had performed throughout the season and accounted for their results only a week before their series. 

SHC vs MIL Prediction: 3-1 SHC, Actual Result: 3-0 SHC

I feel pretty good about this prediction. While I didn't get it exact I correctly noted that if either team went 2-0 up they'd sweep and correctly gave the edge to SHC. I didn't really adjust predictions going into this series, though I likely gave MIL too much credit in spite of their recent performances. 

Fnatic vs ROC Prediction: 3-1 FNC, Actual Result: 3-2 FNC

I'll be honest even as a Roccat fan I never expected them to put up such a wild fight against Fnatic in the semi-finals at gamescom. Overall I feel good about the prediction, Roccat showed up and pushed Fnatic further than most people thought they could and they deserve praise for it, but I think it would have been a bit fanboyish of me to have blindly predicted such a crazy series. 

ALL vs SK Prediction: 3-1 ALL, Actual Result: 3-1 ALL

Nailed it. 

ROC vs SK Prediction: 3-2 ROC, Actual Result: 3-0 SK

This is one of those series that makes it clear why predictions just don't end up being 100% correct without a lot of luck. Roccat has had better champion select than SK for a long time, the teams share a lot of the same problems avoiding either team having obvious significant edges, and ROC had just proved against Fnatic that they were on point at Gamescom and should have pushed SK to the limit. While ROC may not have taken it in the end this series really should have gone all 5 games. Instead Roccat appeared to have spent everything just trying to make it past Fnatic and when they failed they fell apart for the series against SK. 

ALL vs FNC Prediction: 3-2 FNC, Actual Result: 3-1 ALL

While Alliance did hold the head ot head 3-1 over Fnatic this split it felt in large part thanks to Fnatic's All Stars slump at the start. Fnatic was simply not showing up the first few weeks in a lot of peoples opinions. When Fnatic did finally turn it on near the end of the split they were hands down playing on par with Alliance, while having a better champion select phase. Fnatic's superior champion select and the fact they were defending 3 time EU LCS champions weighed it in Fnatic's favor. Instead just like Roccat, it seemed Fnatic was forced to burn everything they had just to make it to the finals against Alliance. I feel like this was another example where a prediction fell apart due to team mentality day of more than incorrectly assessing past results. 

NA

TSM vs Dig Prediction: 3-2 Dig, Actual Result: 3-1 TSM

I feel like not weighing Dig's final week results into this is less of a mistake than it was for MIL's games, but still a definite mistake. I think if I'd retained that lesson from the EU playoffs I might have weighted the series 3-2 for TSM instead of Dig. 

Curse vs CLG Prediction 3-1 CLG, Actual Result: 3-0 Curse

Unlike with Dig I don't think weighing in CLG's performance issues would have been a smart move for this series considering they hadn't been seen since week 10 and spent nearly a month in Korea. By all measure this series should not have gone the way it did. The last time CLG spent a few weeks with coach Montecristo in house they had a dominant performance and sat near the top of the NA LCS standings. Add to that the fact they were practicing in Korea against better scrim partners and it's difficult to reasonably argue that we should have expected CLG to lose, much less fall apart, this series.

Dig vs CLG Prediction: 3-1 CLG, Actual Result: 3-1 Dig

Again I think it would have been a bit unreasonable to predict differently here. Dig's singular working strategy against TSM succeeded thanks to a lack of aggression from TSM, something that CLG had not lacked against Curse even if it hadn't created a win. Dig's champion select also made progressively less sense against TSM where CLG seemed to actually be pulling themselves together a bit over the course of the series but were let down by their actual play and decision making. 

LMQ vs TSM Prediction: 3-0 LMQ, Actual Result 3-2 TSM

Another good example of day of performance making predictions a bit of a crap shoot. TSM did not look any better than they had all split long against Dignitas and LMQ had had their number every time they matched up. I'd hazard to say anyone who predicted this match in TSM's favor after watching TSM vs DIG is guilty of fanboying a bit. The only vaguely reasonable reason to predict difficulty for LMQ was the ownership drama they'd recently been through. Even that didn't seem enough to so heavily set them back though. 

C9 vs Curse Prediction: 3-2 C9, Actual Result: 3-0 C9

Cloud9 is probably the only team I didn't give enough credit to in playoffs this split. Curse had been surging like crazy, there were parallels to other similar team styles matching against each other. I thought that plus C9's continued struggles throughout the split was enough to make it a close match. I did not give the C9 dominance enough credit, peak C9 showed up this series when I didn't think it would and it rolled over Curse. 

Due to there being no break on the weekends and me writing my predictions before hand I didn't make actual predictions for TSM vs C9 or LMQ vs Curse. I didn't expect TSM to come out ahead of LMQ. On twitter though I predicted LMQ taking it over Curse and C9 3-0ing TSM again due to TSM still not looking better against LMQ. I was very happy to be wrong about C9 vs TSM. All credit must be given to TSM for finally looking like a team that could contest for 1st place against C9, both teams played very strong matches and TSM came out the victor.

So there you have it, how I made my predictions, where I think I went wrong, and where I think the unpredictable factors in League made a difference. I intend to make similar predictions for Worlds once more information on matchups are released and hopefully the lessons learned from looking over my predictions this way will mean more accurate predictions in the future.

EU LCS Playoff Preview: Gamescom

Fifth Place

Supa Hot Crew vs Millenium

I'll be honest I was not expecting this to be the 5th place match. I expected the MIL we had seen for 10 weeks in the regular season to show up and crush a slumping SK. Instead SK still looked kinda slumpy in game 1 but not enough for whatever the heck MIL was doing to be successful. Now we have two teams with really bad champion select phase in the midst of slumps facing off and it's honestly really hard to call. 

Both SHC and MIL face a lot of the same problems, kinda tilty mid laners, tops who fall back to old comfort picks that aren't in the current meta, Jungler's who insist on running tier 2 picks even when the trinity junglers are left open, shaky map control in the mid game, and gods awful champ select. Looking at their head to head doesn't help much either as they sit 2-2. 

I think if either team gets a 2-0 lead the series will be a sweep, but otherwise it'll likely go 3-1. I'm giving the slight edge to SHC simply because MrRallez is more consistent than Creaton right now, and while Rallez doesn't often carry games for SHC up against MIL where the rest of the teams are relatively even he could put the team on his back. 

Semi-Finals

ROCCAT vs Fnatic

I was on the ROC hype train for the quarterfinals and if you don't remember I nailed that prediction, but Fnatic is a whole other ball game. Fnatic holds the head to head against ROC 4-0 which should really give a preview of my prediction.

ROC's champion select skill is really what carried them through against SHC but if I had to pick one team in Europe that had as good or better champion select right now, that team would be Fnatic. Fnatic has the best bot lane in EU, Soaz can absolutely handle himself or even beat Xaxus in top, and while xPeke might not be considered the best mid in EU right now he'll definitely out perform Overpow. All ROC has going for them in this match up is the demi-god of the jungle Jankos, but when all his lanes are in trouble without Cyanide interfering it will be hard for Jankos to do much of anything. 

I think because it's a series there's a reasonable chance of ROC taking a game off Fnatic with proper adapting in champion select, but the series is almost assuredly going to end in Fnatic's favor. I predict 3-1 Fnatic.

Alliance vs SK Gaming

SK absolutely looked better than expected against SHC, but problems with their champion select and early-mid game decision making were still apparent. Going against the top seeded team in the EU LCS it's hard to see how SK can come out ahead. 

Alliance really holds all the cards this match up. Froggen will dominate Jesiz in mid, Candypanda will be hard pressed to come out on top of Tabzz, and while Shook has some issues with Jungle prioritization Svenskeren has the same issues but without the part where it somehow works. However Alliance does have a slight problem with closing out games, this entire split they've allowed obviously won games to go on an extra 10 minutes and against a team like SK that is rather good in the late game that can be a problem if SK can stall a game to that point.  

It would not be surprising to see Alliance's tendency to let games go on too long result in them dropping a game to SK, but otherwise I expect them to take the series quite handily. 3-1 Alliance. 

Third Place

ROCCAT vs SK Gaming

 This should honestly be the closest match outside the finals in EU.

Both teams are surging out of slumps, both teams have experience with best of 5 series. SK has the superior carry laners Jesiz is far from the best in EU but Overpow is arguably the weakest individual player, similarly Candypanda has his positional problems but his champion diversity and skill ceiling are greater than Celaver. Just like against SHC though, ROC have a far superior jungler, stronger support player, and equal or possibly better top laner. ROCCAT also have a superior champion select though the advantage is not nearly as strong as it was for them against SHC, it could still end up being a deciding factor in a few of the games.

This series should be very close with things like how well Jankos can pressure early, and how Candypanda is performing being critically important. I honestly expect it to go all 5 games, I want to say ROC take it 3-2 but that prediction is just barely. I absolutely would not be surprised to see it go 3-2 in SK's favor.

Finals

Fnatic vs Alliance

I don't think I'm shocking anyone by predicting the two best teams in EU LCS end up facing each other for top seed at Worlds, this match has been heavily predicted for a few weeks now, even more so once both locked up the bye for quarterfinals. 

Alliance currently holds the head to head 3-1 over Fnatic, and they have Froggen living up to the hype as the best mid laner in EU going for them. Still, you have to bet on Fnatic for this series. Fnatic has more experience in best of series than Alliance, they've been together longer, they have the edge in champion select with Cyanide better understanding the jungle than Shook, and to top it off Fnatic is the defending 3 time LCS split champions. 

I think Alliance will put up a monumental fight and make the series quite close, but I do think Fnatic will take it 3-2. 

Chances at Worlds

The format for Worlds has been announced and this year will have all teams participating in the group stages, 4 groups of 4 with the top 2 of each group advancing to the bracket stage. That means getting the first seed won't give Fnatic a bye straight into the group stage like it did last year, but it does mean Fnatic would avoid facing the #1 seed from NA, Korea, or China which can be invaluable. Both Fnatic and Alliance are strong enough to escape groups, especially if they're lucky enough to land in one of the groups with only 1 team from Korea/China. The EU 3rd place team, regardless if it's ROC or SK is unlikely to advance in my opinion, but that's okay because the group stage experience will still be incredibly valuable to them and if they make good use of it they could come back an even scarier team for the spring split. 

EU LCS Playoff Preview: Quarterfinals

Supa Hot Crew vs ROCCAT

Despite the fact that SHC has sat significantly higher in the standings than ROC throughout the LCS season these teams are actually a lot closer than they appear. The head to head between the teams is 2-2, ROCCAT has been improving as the split progressed and SHC has dealt with some issues and a bit of decline as the split came to an end.

When comparing the teams straight across it’s plain to see that SHC holds the better carry players. MrRallez has routinely performed strong in SHC games despite their revolving door of support players and seems able to comfortably use any ADC the team needs, where Celaver has had some noticeable gaps in what he’s comfortable on in the LCS as well as a larger number of lack luster performances. Mid lane is a similar story, Selfie often hits higher peaks on his limited champion pool, but Overpow is impossible to ban out and has far fewer low points than the somewhat tilt prone Selfie.

Meanwhile ROCCAT boasts what is arguably the best jungler in the EU LCS. It’s absolutely true that SHC’s Impaler has grown a lot from his poor showing last split but he simply pales in comparison to Jankos. Jankos has demonstrated incredible ability on all of the trinity junglers (Evelynn, Lee Sin, Elise), helped his team to generate the most first bloods in the entire LCS, and been the primary factor in ROCCAT’s tendency to have a strong early game. 

On top of their superior jungler ROC also boast a much better ability to adapt to the changing meta in recent weeks, remember ROC understood and showcased both Xerath and Maokai before they were picked up in Korea and made popular. ROC also has the better champion select phase showing similar champ select values to some of the teams with the absolute best champion selection in the world like Samsung Galaxy White, SKT T1 K, Cloud 9, and Fnatic, where SHC has repeatedly shown champion select mistakes from over valuing Jarvan to randomly defaulting back to old comfort picks like Mimer's Shyvana. 

If both teams come into this match on top form ROCCAT's superior champ select, adaptability, Jankos' ridiculous ability to generate first bloods, Selfie's tendency to tilt, and the fact MrRallez has rarely been able to solo carry a game for SHC should add up to a 3-0 result for ROCCAT. However, it's been awhile since we've seen ROC's best and I expect they'll still have some struggles with their mid game decision making. I expect SHC to take either game 1 or game 2 off ROC and make the series a close 3-1 in favor of ROCCAT.

SK Gaming vs Millenium

Just like the other quarterfinal match SK and MIL sit 2-2 in the head to head for this split, but unlike the other quarterfinal this one seems a lot more cut and dry.

SK has fallen off immensely from the start of the split where their map movement and ability to play the 2v0 double jungle meta was able to make up for their weaker laners. SK's champion select is abysmal often allowing the "OP" champions like Kass, Lee Sin, or Gragas to not only slip through but go completely unpicked even after it's become clear the "OP" champion would be a direct counter to the team comp their opponent was putting together. Similarly the meta shift towards immobile carries has had a disastrous effect on Candypanda who has demonstrated a serious issue with his team fight positioning making champions like Kogmaw even harder than it already is for SK to execute properly.

Contrast that with Millenium who spent their time between splits learning how to close games and came back a scary opponent for any team in the EU LCS. MIL has stayed rather consistent in their performances this entire split using their preference for pick comps to secure Kerp and Creaton places in the top 5 FantasyLCS scorers as well as a respectable amount of wins for the team.

I simply don't see a way for SK to win this series outside of a miracle and I'd honestly even be shocked to see them pick up 1 game. I expect MIL to sweep the series 3-0. 

From tied for first to struggling at the bottom of the pack, the rise and fall of ROCCAT.

Picture credit: Lolesports.com

When most of us first met Roccat (then KMT) they were complete underdogs heading into the spring promotion tournament against NiP. Instead of playing like the underdogs Roccat simply played NiP's game, but better. Roccat systematically dismantled NiP in 3 long slow games giving us the 3-0 stomp everyone expected, but for the team no one thought would qualify. Thus was Roccat ushered into the EU LCS.

ROCCAT Rising

Qualifying for LCS was only the beginning of Roccat's bag of tricks though. In their very first game Roccat broke out Pantheon mid and gave us the Unstoppable Skyfall wombo combo that would help them to a quick and decisive 31 minute victory. More than just setting Roccat off to a good start, this game also proved that they were more than the slow methodical play we had seen from them in the promotion series. Roccat would follow it up with more stellar performances and even some interesting picks like Gragas jungle and a Mordakaiser mid.

It did not take long for Roccat's strengths to shine through. They were masters of the reactive play style in both champion select and the game itself. Whether it was seeing NiP's late game team comp coming and beating them at their own game, or using SHC's aggressive push mid to create the Unstoppable Skyfall Roccat's reactive play was in a word incredible. They also backed up that strong reactive play with exquisite team fighting.

Spring split Roccat looked very much like Cloud 9 when it came to team fighting. There was no hesitation, no questioning the call, when Roccat went for a fight they all simply went in. The Unstoppable Skyfall is a great example of this. Roccat knows SHC is about to try to 5 man push mid for the outer turret. They've already seen 4 SHC members in mid lane and know Mimer is roaming down. To react Roccat pulls Xaxus down from top and Overpow up from bot. As soon as SHC make their push Overpow pulls the trigger and all of Roccat pile in, the result is a thing of beauty.

I love this gif

That first game for Roccat was such a great example of what Roccat was in the spring split. Not only do they react to SHC's play and pile in on the call to engage without hesitation, but they also show the trademark Roccat style. When this game came out Pantheon mid and Malphite top were not even close to popular. Instead of playing the established popular champions Roccat picked their own style that worked for them and executed it flawlessly, and they continued to do it for much of their strong spring performance.

Roccat were not without their weaknesses though. jungler Jankos often made questionable decisions during the early game that could put him and his team behind, some of their laning phases were below par for the EU LCS, and their vision game was never the strongest. All of that meant teams with powerful early games, like the spring incarnation of Copenhagen Wolves, could get a strong enough lead early to leave Roccat with no good options. This happened more often as teams like SK and Alliance hit their stride but Roccat was still able to end the regular season in 4th and defeat Gambit for 3rd place playoff finish. So how did Roccat go from a top 4 team to barely managing to defeat a squad of last minute substitutes?

Collapse of Confidence

Roccat has lost confidence in themselves and their play. We can see it in their sloppy pick ban phase against SK today where they were caught having to decide which of two very strong Jesiz champions, Kayle and Kassadin, was okay to let through. We can see it in their hesitation to commit to fights and objectives like the game against MIL at Wembley with the dragon dance that just wouldn't end. The most telling sign though is in their picks this split, half way through the season and they've not broken free from the popular tier of picks even once.

Last split Roccat was a team that would bring Gragas jungle or Mordakaiser mid to the table and crush with it because they were playing their own style of game. Now they play everyone else's style, they play the same standard champions as everyone else, and they are afraid of taking the risks that scored them so many victories in spring.

A team once praised for their reactive play style, Roccat has become risk averse. Roccat hesitate when they opportunity to take chances occur, like in champion select against SK where they could have left Kassadin and Kayle both open to put SK on the back food, and they hesitate when they should be forcing fights and objectives like the MIL dragon that dance that never ends.

Each time the hesitation appears, even for an instant, Roccat suffers immensely for it. Whether against the best or the worst of the EU LCS, hesitation has cost Roccat fights, leads, and in many cases entire games. To make matters even worse, none of Roccat's issues from last split have been solved. Their laning phase is still nothing special, they're still making questionable decisions early game, and their vision play has actually gotten worse.

Road to Recovery

Unfortunately while noticing and pointing out these problems is easy, there's no magic cure to solve a team no longer trusting calls. If someone could figure out the secret of convincing teams to blindly trust calls they could make a pretty penny selling it to League teams. Until then however Roccat will have to put in the hard work to solve their problems. There is a small hope that having their coach Veggie back, he was unable to be in the team house until recently, will help fix Roccat's problems.

Even if they struggle to solve the confidence problem Roccat can still make themselves more competitive by solving some of the issues that have plagued them from their entry into the LCS. Better early game and stronger vision control would go a long way towards bringing the team much needed wins. With wins might come some of that confidence they once had and maybe a bit less of the hesitation we see now.

The brilliance of Froggen's Anivia.

Froggen is without doubt the most well known Anivia player in the world right now. From tales of him grinding games early in his adoption of League of Legends on it, to his incredible Season 2 performances with it on CLG.EU Froggen's legendary Anivia has become a fan favorite occurrence. Fans enjoy his Anivia so much that when Froggen was voted into the Paris All Star show matches fans went out of their way to make sure he played an Anivia game. Surprisingly we didn't just get to watch Froggen on his legendary main at Paris, we also witnessed him absolutely crush Bjergsen's Zed and carry Team Ice to victory in the show matches. It's little surprise then that fans exploded in excitement when Froggen locked in Anivia for their match against Roccat this week. The Anivia pick was not just for the fans though, in returning to his favorite cryo-phoenix Froggen had found a massively synergistic pick with the current meta.

Right now much of the LCS champion select revolves around the fact that outside of Lucian, the highly immobile Twitch and Kog'Maw are by far the best ADC picks. This has baited more than one team into running Kog'Maw with little to no peel to rather disastrous effect. Meanwhile in mid many of the meta favored champions don't pair well with Kog'Maw. Lulu, Orianna, and Nidalee are okay pairs with their shields and heals, but picks like Leblanc, Kassadin, Twisted Fate, and Yasuo offer nothing to the protect the Kog'Maw composition usually required to run the champion.

Enter Anivia, in place of the shields or heals Nidalee, Orianna, and Lulu offer to Kog'Maw Anivia instead brings overwhelming zone control and peel. Anivia brings a 400 unit radius slowing AoE from her ultimate, an AoE stun that slows anyone it damages even if the stun misses, and a wall that at max rank extends 800 units across the map. On top of all that team utility Anivia brings to lane strong burst from her Q+E combo, Ziggs level infinite wave clear, and near unparalleled safety from the egg form passive. When paired with Kog'Maw Anivia's kit asks the question "How are you going to get through all this peel and still have something left to catch the ADC?" The simple answer to which is, you're not.

To really hammer home the advantage Anivia brings Alliance held the Anivia pick in both games until late in the champion select. This allowed Alliance to see Shyvana and Evelynn come out from their opponents and ensure that the enemy would have very little hard engage to lock down someone. This magnified Anivia's strengths allowing Froggen to block flanking routes into the team and funnel enemies through his heavy slowing and damaging ultimate. The zone control of Anivia allowed Tabzz on Kog'Maw in game one, and Twitch in game two, to pump out damage with impunity, ensuring Alliance's victory.

By digging into his past Froggen was able to find an incredibly strong pick no one was using and make a 2-0 week look easy. The ability to look outside the popular picks and find something that works so well in new metas is what sets the best players apart, and Froggen has certainly shown he is still a world class mid laner breaking out the Anivia again.

EU LCS playoff recap

Everyone came to EU LCS playoffs expecting big things after the incredibly close regular season and boy did they deliver. Underdogs rose to the challenge, old powerhouses were toppled, and surprising trends continued, and I've got it all in one enormous recap.

\Day One:

Copenhagen Wolves vs Alliance:
Alliance were the heavy favorites coming into this game. They had been on a strong up turn as the season rounded out and Copenhagen Wolves were still struggling with closing out their games.

It's safe to say everyone sat up and took notice when game 1 saw Copenhagen Wolves take command from the beginning and never let go. The 4 man stack lane swap initiated by Alliance did not work out for them as they wound up falling far behind the tower pushing might of Jax and Xin Zhao allowing CW to take an inhibitor turret in under 5 minutes compared to Alliances 2 towers. The constant threat of teleport Jax taking the exposed inhibitor was too much for Alliance and they simply never recovered. Game 1 went in strong fashion to Copenhagen Wolves.

Games two and three fell more in line with everyone's predictions, Alliance banned away the Jax and picked dual late game monsters Karthus and Ryze. Alliance's late game focused, wave clear heavy, composition simply out farmed and out scaled Copenhagen Wolves. Alliance's starvation tactics worked and they were able to take the series 2-1 and advance to face Fnatic in the semi-finals.

Roccat vs Gambit Gaming:
Gambit seems to always be a favorite heading into any tournament. Regardless of how poorly Gambit might be performing leading into an event talk of Gambit's legendary boot camps will come up and the phrase "You can never count Gambit out" will be used. After their performance this week we might see the end of that sentiment.

Roccat played their strategy perfectly, with Jankos applying tremendous jungle pressure in the early game and the late game allowing Xaxus on Jax to split push. Gambit in comparison simply fell apart, terrible vision control, poor rotations, mispositioned fights, and worst of all they completely failed to adapt to Roccat's composition in champion select. Game two would see Roccat allowed all but one of their champions from the previous game, and another complete domination of Gambit sending Roccat to face SK in the semi-finals.

Day Two:

Fnatic vs Alliance:
Thanks to their 2nd place finish in the regular season Fnatic had a first bye and it was clear they made strong use of it preparing for Alliance. The result was a phenomenal slugfest between the two teams.

Game one saw Fnatic demonstrating a powerful understanding of the late game scaling composition Alliance had used against Copenhagen Wolves the day before. Fnatic let Karthus and Ryze both go to Alliance and picked themselves up a shields and heals composition with Soraka, Kayle, and Janna. The mass of extra survivability in Fnatic's team overwhelmed the sustained damage focused Alliance team making it impossible for Ryze and Karthus to be the carrying factors they had been against Cophenhagen Wolves.

After Fnatic's game one victory Alliance adapted fast banning out the linchpin of the survival comp Soraka, and bringing an AoE burst team with Ziggs and Twitch. Fnatic attempted to revive the mid lane Zed coupled with a top lane lulu to bring a heavy split push composition. Zed would falter to the heavily buffed Exhaust and Fnatic simply could not hold up to Alliance's incredible AoE burst resulting in the series being tied up at one game apiece.

Alliance lost a ban due to making a champion trade too late in game 2 as a result the Nidalee that had seen purple side bans in both previous games slipped through. Alliance secured themselves Jax and attempted to put together a pick/split push team but their primarily melee champions were no match for the long range poke and disengage heavy Fnatic composition. Fnatic would ride xPeke's Nidalee spears to a 2-1 victory over Alliance and a ticket to the grand finals.

SK Gaming vs Roccat:
Despite Roccat's strong performance the day before SK remained the favorite for this face-off due to their hefty 3-1 record over Roccat in the regular season as well as SK's first place regular season finish.

Despite their favored status SK did not seem as together for their first game as Fnatic had, they allowed Roccat to get the entire trio of Jax, Elise, and Thresh that had carried Roccat to dominant victory over Gambit on day one. The game played out very similarly to the Gambit games as Jankos' Elise put heavy pressure on the lanes, Xaxus laid down heavy split push pressure with Jax, and Vander continued to make incredible plays with his Thresh.

SK didn't take the loss lying down they came back with a clear plan in champion select banning away Thresh and Jax in both subsequent games. With comfort champions removed Roccat seemed to fall apart, making awkward calls to chase for kills giving up objectives in the process. Jankos especially failed to live up to his previous performance as he strayed away from the still free Elise onto Kha'Zix and Xin Zhao, neither of whom gave him the play making power he'd had with the spider queen. The series went 2-1 to SK and meant we'd get an "El Classico" Fnatic vs SK grand finals.

Gambit Gaming vs Copenhagen Wolves:
Due to the length of the previous two Bo3 series this fight to avoid relegation went late into the evening and it seemed to weigh heavily on both teams.

All three games were filled with poor decision making, terrible vision control, awkward rotations, and incredibly obvious mistakes. By the time Gambit finally closed out the series 2-1 we had witnessed the worst display of professional League of Legends this entire split and both teams seemed deserving of relegation. CW will have to work fast if they want to defeat Denial Esports to stay in the LCS next split, and Gambit desperately needs to sort out their recent problems if they want any hope of attending the World Championship in Korea this season.

Day Three

Roccat vs Alliance:
This series was the fight for 3rd place but sadly it seemed that after their loss to Fnatic the day before Alliance had checked out for this series, a thought later confirmed by some of the Alliance players on twitter.

The games were nowhere near bad, but Alliance made a few poor decisions each game allowing Roccat to take firm control including giving Jankos his Elise, trying to counter Trundle with damage heavy Renekton build, and reacting to Roccat's picks in game two by giving Vander back his Thresh comfort pick. All in all Roccat simply played both games better securing themselves the 3rd place title for the EU LCS spring split.

El Classico, Fnatic vs SK Gaming:
This matchup has been dubbed "El Classico" due to it being one of the oldest rivalries in esports spanning several years and numerous esport titles so everyone was sure we were in for a treat and boy did it deliver.

Game one Fnatic brought Leblanc, Kha'Zix, and Lee Sin for a strong pick composition that allowed them to dominate the early game. Fnatic would snowball the early lead into 3 barons and a slow but definitive game one victory. SK did a good job of slowing Fnatic down holding out against 2 barons with their wave clear before finally falling. During the match I took the time to point out once again how an Ohmwrecker for Fnatic would have been an optimal purchase and due to their sizable gold lead could have allowed them to close out the game a good 10 minutes earlier than what they ended up doing.

Game two SK brought a heavy team fight composition against Fnatic's favored Nidalee centric poke team. It seemed to go well for SK as they took advantage of an early mistake by Fnatic to control the game and exploited the fact that poke comps struggle when they fall behind. Unfortunately for SK they were never runaway with the game ahead of Fnatic, and as a result we all learned a valuable lesson about picking your battles. SK engaged a fight over the wight wall top lane. Disasterously both Jesiz and Candypanda, SK's two carries, could not follow the rest of the team over the wall and the fight went horribly for SK. Fnatic not only turned around that fight but immediately secured Baron and a gold lead off the back of it. A single bad engage from SK gave the game away and Fnatic went 2-0 up in the best of five series.

Game three Fnatic were back to purple side and banned out the Nidalee themselves as they'd been doing all playoffs long. Instead they tried again for the shield heavy comp, but SK's burst heavy Orianna Twitch combination and a poor level 1 lane swap call from Fnatic spelled doom for Fnatic. SK out rotated Fnatic at every turn and methodically worked their way to the nexus to force a game 4.

Game four Fnatic again secured their poke disengage team comp they'd been so successful with. This time they avoided the early mistake they'd made before. Strong mechanical play from Fnatic secured them an early lead and again we saw just how hard it is to deal with a poke comp once it was ahead. Fnatic would again ride xPeke's spears to a series victory securing their third straight 1st place finish in the EU LCS and a ticket to the Paris All Star invitational.

With Fnatic's playoff victory secured yet again they proved they really do have what it takes to perform when it counts. They also had the bonus side effect of now ensuring all 3 World Champion franchises would participate in the Paris All Star invitational as both TPA and SKT T1 K were already confirmed to attend.

Regardless of results the SK vs GMB rematch needed to happen.

UPDATE: Riot Nick Allen has confirmed in a follow up post that no decision was made by the referee and therefore 8.3.3 did not apply, and that the forceful remake was done to prevent SK falling under undue external pressure from the decision. He goes on to state that LCS rules will receive an update soon to make what happens in this scenario clearer and hopefully prevent another incident. 


When it was announced only hours before it would take place the remake of SK vs Gambit, caused in large part by this Aatrox bug, rustled a lot of feathers. Reddit and Twitter exploded with people railing against the decision, spurred on by a statement from Gambit blasting the decision. All the arguments were focused around the same flawed points the official Gambit statement used, a single rule example against the idea, and examples of other known bugs that did not result in remakes. Both are flawed arguments for different reasons so I'm going to tackle them one at a time.

First is the LCS rule book quote. Gambit's statement quoted a single rule which they thought proved Riot themselves were breaking the rules by having a remake. That quote in full from the LCS rule book is 

8.3.3 Finality of Judgment. If a referee makes an incorrect judgment during a match, the judgment cannot be reversed, as the decision of the referee is absolute and final and there is no appeal process. 

On the surface Gambit sounds like they're correct in stating the remake shouldn't have happened, but it's ignoring a few key details. First is Rule 11 which states all rules and their interpretations are at the discretion of LCS officials. This is important because it means Riot already stipulated that theirs is the correct interpretation of the rules, Gambit may disagree but so long as Riot maintains the interpretation uniformly then no amount of quoting the rule book can make Riot's interpretation wrong.

The other important flaw with gambit's rule argument is that it fails to actually take into account why the remake was happening. Both the official Riot statement and Travis' interview with nRated make it clear that no referee decision was actually made. Roughly 4 minutes in SK paused the game and informed the onstage referee of the bug. Once the bug was verified rule 9.4.2 of the LCS rule book states that the game may be remade, a fact that the referee failed to communicate to SK at the time. The referee's failure to inform SK that they could remake the game, not a decision by the referee, was what Riot sought to rectify by forcing a rematch. As the referee did not make a judgement rule 8.3.3 had absolutely no bearing on the situation.

The other argument against the remake was in the form of citing other prominent bugs that did not get a remake. Most often cited was the semi-recent Coast vs Curse game which Saintvicious tweeted post game saying he experienced a bug causing him to drop Annie Tibbers on himself instead of the enemy team. Other popular references were made towards Xpecial flashing out of CC bug which hit the front page of Reddit a few weeks back and the Zed bug that occurred in the NA All-Stars vs LPL All-Stars match last year.

All 3 bugs, of which only 2 were confirmed, have one thing in common that sets them far apart from the SK vs GMB case. None of the bugs referenced resulted in a pause to challenge them with a referee. The Saintvicious and Xpecial bugs were complained about on twitter and Reddit, and the Zed bug was found by fans on Reddit. None of them were immediately paused after happening, none of them resulted in players having a conversation with the referee.

Without a stoppage of play to challenge the bug the players are by their continuing to play the game signalling that the bug is in line with acceptable play conditions. If the bugs used as counter examples had resulted in a pause and been verified they likely would have been given the option of restarting the game just like SK should have when they paused. We can see this in action during Team Alternate vs Wizard Club in the EU summer promotion tournament where a skill shot bug resulted in several game remake attempts and days of delays to fix the issue. While the Alternate vs Wizard example is far more extreme of a bug it is a much more applicable of an example, play was stopped, a bug was verified, and a rematch (though heavily delayed) was offered.

Not only did Riot not break their own rules, nor contradict themselves, they handled the situation in the best way possible. Once the referee's mistake was clear Riot needed to rectify the situation. They could not do that by awarding special treatment to SK in subsequent games, nor could they punish gambit in subsequent games, for something that was entirely the on stage referee's fault. The best course of action to ensure the situation was handled fairly was a rematch. Even more important is the decision to forcibly have the rematch rather than give it as an option to SK. Had SK been approached before the LCS started on Friday and asked if they wanted to have a rematch of SK vs Gambit their decision would have been heavily tainted by the potential blow back that a rematch would entail. SK suffered a large amount of undue hate for the rematch when it was forced upon them, it would have been a thousandfold worse for SK if they had chosen to play a rematch on Friday.

The remake being forced upon both teams was the fairest way to make up for the referee's mistake, regardless of how the original and the remake played out. While it is unfortunate for Gambit, it was also unfortunate for SK that the referee mistake happened in the first place. Riot handled the mistake as best as was possible to bring about an outcome that was fair to both parties.

Millenium hopes Kottenx can bring them a last minute miracle.

This Sunday Araneae announced with a lengthy and emotional facebook post that he was stepping down as Millenium's starting jungler. He cited the team's poor performance and his own lack of confidence and motivation as the reasoning behind the decision. Millenium were quick to follow that up with their own announcement that sub and high elo player Kottenx would be taking over the role for the remaining 6 games of the EU LCS spring split. Many fans expressed worry that such a late roster change in a critical role could be sealing Millenium's fate as the last place EU team, but there is still reasonable hope for Millenium's playoff chances or at least a more favorable relegation.

Millenium currently sits in last place at 7-15 they're two games back from the 9-13 SHC and 3 games back from the 6th place playoff spot currently held by 10-12 CW. This means that with a strong showing Millenium does still have a reasonable shot at snatching a last second playoff spot. If Kottenx can solve Millenium's late game decision making issues it's hardly unreasonable for a team in Europe to pull off a 6-0 run for the playoffs. Copenhagen Wolves much win 3 matches, or 2 if one of them is against Millenium, to lock Millenium out of the playoffs. Supa Hot Crew must win 5 games to secure their lead over Millenium.

So long as Millenium can pick up wins their hopes to at least improve their relegation chances will remain alive right to the very end. If Millenium drops the game againts CW their playoffs could be dashed immediately as CW would only need 1 more win to lock Millenium out of the top 6. Millenium is no doubt hoping the roster change keeps their playoff dreams alive but we wont find out how well it's worked until Thursday. 

LCS All Star Picks, Part One - EU

With 5 weeks and just under half the spring split completed it's time to start really giving thought to All Star picks as the vote should be coming in just a few short weeks. Riot has said that the reward for All Stars will be different this year, as they're eliminating byes from Worlds. Beyond that we don't know what changes may come for the second incarnation of the All Star event, but it doesn't stop us wanting a win for LCS regions. So I'm going to give my top 3 picks for each role along with why I think they're the best choice for the All Star team.

TOP LANE

1. Xaxus - ROCCAT. Since qualifying for the LCS Roccat has proven to be a juggernaut of a team and currently sits alone in the number 1 slot taking games off Fnatic and Gambit. Xaxus has been a major contributor in a number of Roccat's victories including creating the early advantage against Fnatic in their most recent clash. Xaxus has also demonstrated strength across the current meta champions like Mundo or Shyvana, as well as an ability to dominate the lane on bullies like Renekton or his heavily favored Trundle. 
2. Darien - Gambit. It simply wouldn't be an All Stars list without the man who is solely responsible for making Warwick a thing. Darien and Gambit have long been hovering around the top of the pile in Europe and this season is no different. His ability to play from behind, and draw heavy focus both in games and in champion select make Darien a worthy addition to any All Star team. 
3. sOAZ - Fnatic. Despite his current slump sOAZ still clearly deserves a spot on this list when we look at his achievements. Part of the Fnatic team that won both splits of the EU LCS last season, last year's All Star top laner, a major player in Fnatic's 7-0 start to this season, and the list goes on. There's no doubt that sOAZ will sort his problems before the split is over and help Fnatic to more victories and that makes him a good choice for All Stars. 
4. Honorable Mentions: Honestly top lane is super hard to chose from in the EU LCS, all the players could easily perform as All Stars. With such an incredibly hard choice I had to go with the ones who've helped their teams to the best results.

JUNGLE

1. Jankos - ROCCAT. Picking the top jungler was a hard choice, I finally settled on Jankos for two reasons. The first is his team, Roccat, currently sits the undisputed top of the EU LCS. The other reason being his incredible synergy with my pick for mid lane All Star, Overpow. Jankos and Overpow have made an impressive team, from their ability to play hide the pantheon, to the way they pair their movements across the map. That synergy earns Jankos the number 1 choice for All Stars. 
2. Diamondprox - Gambit. It was tough to not put Diamond first on this list, he's always been a successful innovator of new champions and builds in the jungle. Gambit's strong performance even while Diamond pulls out new junglers and builds that the rest of the world struggles to wrap their heads around makes him an obvious choice for this list. 
3. Araneae - Millenium. While Millenium has struggled to close out games, resulting in them being tied for the bottom of the EU LCS, the only reason we can tell that is their intense early game built on the back of Araneae's fierce jungle style along with mid laner Kerp's strong roaming presence. The fact that Araneae is often able to build his team an early lead earns him the third spot on this list.
4. Honorable Mentions: Cyanide, Svenskeren, Amazing - all have had strong showings in the jungle this split and could easily contend with Araneae for the third spot on this list. 

MID LANE

1. Overpow - ROCCAT. If there's one Roccat member I'll get nearly unanimous agreement on it's got to be Overpow, which should make it no surprise he tops this list. The list of Overpow's strengths are immense, carried his team through promotion against NiP, top mid lane KDA, man handled star mid laners like xPeke and Alex Ich, enormous champion pool, this list could go on all day. Overpow has been such a major component of the Roccat team that it's hard to believe many would argue with him as the best choice for a winning EU All Star team. 
2. Alex Ich - Gambit. It's no surprise Alex is on this list, Gambit is the current number 2 in EU and a constant top team, multiple visits to Worlds, All Star mid laner last season. Alex Ich continues to show an ability to carry games with his impressive mid lane play, it simply would not be an All Stars list without him. 
3. Kerp - Millenium. The man with the trackball has made quite the splash mid lane this season. While Millenium has yet to sort out their late game problems, Kerp's early lane prowess and mid game roaming is something to behold and that earns him a spot on this list. 
4. Honorable Mentions: All the mid laners in EU from farm master Froggen to superstar xPeke are world class players and could easily be All Stars.

AD CARRY

1. MrRallez - Supa Hot Crew. Even when SHC was under performing in the opening weeks of the LCS MrRallez has been a shining beacon for the team. The continually impressive play whether his team is winning or losing enamored me to this fresh face in the LCS and it's what earned MrRallez the spot on this list.
2. Rekkles - Fnatic. After going 3 games without a death it would be impossible to have an All Stars list without Rekkles. Fnatic has not had the best results of late, but that does not take away from Rekkles setting the record for most kills without a death in LCS history. The Rekkles hype is real, and it earned him a well deserved spot on this list. 
3. Candy Panda - SK. After a not great start to the split Candy Panda has stepped up in a big way and helped to Carry SK into a tie for 4th place. Candy Panda is definitely the most improved player on this list and his performance makes him a strong choice for All Stars. 
4. Honorable Mentions: Celaver who was primarily left off this list because I'm working on the assumption that the 3 players per team rule remains in effect, as well as Forg1ven, Creaton, and Tabzz who are all strong players in their own rights.

SUPPORT

1. YellOwStaR - Fnatic. The last half a year has shown Yellowstar's impressive range as a player. He transitioned from ADC to Support, had a single game role swap with top laner Soaz, and adapted to a new lane partner when the team had Rekkles take over for Puszu after season 3 Worlds. Yellowstar's incredible adaptability makes him the single best All Star support option, no matter which AD Carry makes it through he's sure to make the EU All Star a force to be reckoned with. 
2. Migxa - Supa Hot Crew. This fresh face to the LCS has done a "Naiiice" job of making his ADC MrRallez look good in all of SHC's games which makes it no surprise that he's earned a spot on this list. 
3. Jree - Millenium. The strength of Jree's play is no secret, the casters love to mention Jree's play and especially his epic hooks while covering Millenium games. It should be no surprise that such a consistently talked about player has a spot on the All Star list. 
4. Honorable Mentions: Vander who only failed to make this list because of the 3 player rule, as well as EdWard who has always been a strong support player, and Unlimited. 

It's always hard to chose the best players in such a competitive region but I really do believe that assembling the number 1 picks in each role would produce a team well suited to bringing the EU All Stars a win. This post is a bit long so I'm going to separate out the NA picks and post them later in the week.

Edited to add: Bloodwater's recent AMA suggested the All Stars team might be limited to 2 members of any team rather than the 3, whether that's his inside track to Riot talking or just him making a mistake is unclear. If Bloodwater is correct the 2nd and 3rd choices of the list would need a revamp but the top spots could mostly stay the same with only elevating Diamond to the #1 spot. I only barely left Diamond off the top spot on this list because of Jankos' synergy with Overpow and it's no doubt that Diamond would perform.