Let me first preface this by reinforcing that like the title states, this is speculation based on available facts. These conclusions are NOT confirmed, nor should we ever expect them to be.
It's no secret that the community at large was skeptical when TSM announced Gleeb as their new support at the start of the summer split. Gleeb was a largely unproven challenger scene support who had to fill the shoes of Xpecial, who was at the time widely regarded as one of if not the best support in the NA LCS. Despite Gleeb making a ton of progress in his 9 weeks of NA LCS play it's painfully obvious to everyone that TSM has not lived up to expectations for this split.
While TSM does sit tied for 2nd in the standings it's almost entirely off the back of being consistent against the worst teams in the league. Against the other 4 top teams TSM has a disheartening 3-9 record this split. Their inability to succeed regularly against the best teams in the league is what had many write them off the World Championship predictions entirely. It was painfully clear that if TSM wanted to have a good shot at defeating at least two of those top teams to even secure the 3rd place ticket to Worlds something had to change.
When some cryptic clues began to surface the fans went to work trying to tell what changes could be in store for TSM. What resulted was the theory that former CJ Entus Blaze support Lustboy could be joining TSM. All parties were quick to downplay the idea and many people cited the fact that it would be a terrible move to make a mid season roster swap if you're hoping to make playoffs and Worlds. After the standard round of denials things went quiet for a bit and everyone assumed it was just a rumor that got out of control, but then the funniest thing happened. This week TSM actually announced Lustboy has joined their starting roster.
Here's where the speculation comes in. It's hard to believe that those who first theorized Lustboy heading to TSM a month in advance of the announcement could have been so spot on with their prediction when it was supposedly unthinkable at the time. A more likely answer is that TSM, well aware of the dangers of a mid season roster swap the critics pointed out, began tentative talks with Lustboy a month ago. Once informed that playoffs would be at PAX again this year, and that there'd be a 2 week break between regular season and playoffs, TSM set about acquiring Lustboy with intent to delay his joining the team until the best possible date for the team.
The TSM roster while not a contender for Worlds was still a decent roster, and importantly it was still incredibly consistent against the bottom 3 teams in NA. Even a month ago it was becoming readily apparent that the TSM roster could secure at minimum the 6th playoff spot simply off the back of their victories over the lower tier teams who were starved for wins this split. So a quite sensible plan ensues, Lustboy is hired by TSM, though not publicly, with intent to delay him until TSM locks up their playoff spot or until the deadline for acquiring new players, July 29th according to the LCS rulebook. With this plan TSM could minimize potential damage of a mid season roster swap, and still have at least 3 weeks to whip the new team into shape for playoffs.
So if TSM planned this for the last month and the deadline isn't until after the next LCS week, why are they breaking out Lustboy now? Because as of their victory over compLexity last Sunday TSM has now officially locked down their playoff spot. TSM sits tied for 2nd in the NA LCS standings at 13-9 and 7th place CoL sits at 7-15. If TSM dropped all 6 remaining games, and compLexity won all 6 of their remaining games CoL could only tie TSM for 6th place. However as TSM holds the head to head record 4-0 over CoL they would automatically win the tie breaker and secure 6th place.
This is the absolute best possible time to make a mid season roster change. At the worst Lustboy cannot drag TSM down out of playoffs, and at best he could help them secure a 1st round bye by securing a top 2 position. By bringing in Lustboy now TSM has in a way gamed the LCS system. They eliminated all of the risk associated with a mid season roster swap while still having the potential for a huge payoff if it goes well.
All the teams are quite vocal about problems in the LCS system that create this kind of loophole, and TSM owner Reginald is often credited for his shrewd roster decisions. It's unlikely that we'd ever receive confirmation that the Lustboy transfer was all planned, but one must admit it's interesting to speculate that TSM could have been planning this move for over a month.
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