EU LCS Playoff Preview: Gamescom

Fifth Place

Supa Hot Crew vs Millenium

I'll be honest I was not expecting this to be the 5th place match. I expected the MIL we had seen for 10 weeks in the regular season to show up and crush a slumping SK. Instead SK still looked kinda slumpy in game 1 but not enough for whatever the heck MIL was doing to be successful. Now we have two teams with really bad champion select phase in the midst of slumps facing off and it's honestly really hard to call. 

Both SHC and MIL face a lot of the same problems, kinda tilty mid laners, tops who fall back to old comfort picks that aren't in the current meta, Jungler's who insist on running tier 2 picks even when the trinity junglers are left open, shaky map control in the mid game, and gods awful champ select. Looking at their head to head doesn't help much either as they sit 2-2. 

I think if either team gets a 2-0 lead the series will be a sweep, but otherwise it'll likely go 3-1. I'm giving the slight edge to SHC simply because MrRallez is more consistent than Creaton right now, and while Rallez doesn't often carry games for SHC up against MIL where the rest of the teams are relatively even he could put the team on his back. 

Semi-Finals

ROCCAT vs Fnatic

I was on the ROC hype train for the quarterfinals and if you don't remember I nailed that prediction, but Fnatic is a whole other ball game. Fnatic holds the head to head against ROC 4-0 which should really give a preview of my prediction.

ROC's champion select skill is really what carried them through against SHC but if I had to pick one team in Europe that had as good or better champion select right now, that team would be Fnatic. Fnatic has the best bot lane in EU, Soaz can absolutely handle himself or even beat Xaxus in top, and while xPeke might not be considered the best mid in EU right now he'll definitely out perform Overpow. All ROC has going for them in this match up is the demi-god of the jungle Jankos, but when all his lanes are in trouble without Cyanide interfering it will be hard for Jankos to do much of anything. 

I think because it's a series there's a reasonable chance of ROC taking a game off Fnatic with proper adapting in champion select, but the series is almost assuredly going to end in Fnatic's favor. I predict 3-1 Fnatic.

Alliance vs SK Gaming

SK absolutely looked better than expected against SHC, but problems with their champion select and early-mid game decision making were still apparent. Going against the top seeded team in the EU LCS it's hard to see how SK can come out ahead. 

Alliance really holds all the cards this match up. Froggen will dominate Jesiz in mid, Candypanda will be hard pressed to come out on top of Tabzz, and while Shook has some issues with Jungle prioritization Svenskeren has the same issues but without the part where it somehow works. However Alliance does have a slight problem with closing out games, this entire split they've allowed obviously won games to go on an extra 10 minutes and against a team like SK that is rather good in the late game that can be a problem if SK can stall a game to that point.  

It would not be surprising to see Alliance's tendency to let games go on too long result in them dropping a game to SK, but otherwise I expect them to take the series quite handily. 3-1 Alliance. 

Third Place

ROCCAT vs SK Gaming

 This should honestly be the closest match outside the finals in EU.

Both teams are surging out of slumps, both teams have experience with best of 5 series. SK has the superior carry laners Jesiz is far from the best in EU but Overpow is arguably the weakest individual player, similarly Candypanda has his positional problems but his champion diversity and skill ceiling are greater than Celaver. Just like against SHC though, ROC have a far superior jungler, stronger support player, and equal or possibly better top laner. ROCCAT also have a superior champion select though the advantage is not nearly as strong as it was for them against SHC, it could still end up being a deciding factor in a few of the games.

This series should be very close with things like how well Jankos can pressure early, and how Candypanda is performing being critically important. I honestly expect it to go all 5 games, I want to say ROC take it 3-2 but that prediction is just barely. I absolutely would not be surprised to see it go 3-2 in SK's favor.

Finals

Fnatic vs Alliance

I don't think I'm shocking anyone by predicting the two best teams in EU LCS end up facing each other for top seed at Worlds, this match has been heavily predicted for a few weeks now, even more so once both locked up the bye for quarterfinals. 

Alliance currently holds the head to head 3-1 over Fnatic, and they have Froggen living up to the hype as the best mid laner in EU going for them. Still, you have to bet on Fnatic for this series. Fnatic has more experience in best of series than Alliance, they've been together longer, they have the edge in champion select with Cyanide better understanding the jungle than Shook, and to top it off Fnatic is the defending 3 time LCS split champions. 

I think Alliance will put up a monumental fight and make the series quite close, but I do think Fnatic will take it 3-2. 

Chances at Worlds

The format for Worlds has been announced and this year will have all teams participating in the group stages, 4 groups of 4 with the top 2 of each group advancing to the bracket stage. That means getting the first seed won't give Fnatic a bye straight into the group stage like it did last year, but it does mean Fnatic would avoid facing the #1 seed from NA, Korea, or China which can be invaluable. Both Fnatic and Alliance are strong enough to escape groups, especially if they're lucky enough to land in one of the groups with only 1 team from Korea/China. The EU 3rd place team, regardless if it's ROC or SK is unlikely to advance in my opinion, but that's okay because the group stage experience will still be incredibly valuable to them and if they make good use of it they could come back an even scarier team for the spring split.