Fifth Place
Counter Logic Gaming vs Dignitas
This is definitely not the 5th place match I was expecting. I predicted both of these teams to win, because both have had the stronger peak performances this split and that is often an important factor when teams get ample time to prepare for a series like this. That same method is how I correctly predicted Roccat beating out SHC in europe, sadly Dig and CLG did not live up to expectations. I will say that Dig came much closer to what I predicted from them than CLG did though.
After watching the quarterfinals this game became rather hard to call. Dignitas had some good team comp ideas but their execution was abysmal. Even in game 1 their split push efforts worked more due to TSM's indecisive shot calling rather than anything specific Dig did, they lost most of the 4v4 split fights but weren't punished for that by TSM. All 4 games Dig had poor team fighting and abysmal vision control against TSM. The main redeeming quality for Dig, apart from Zion's singular adventure in split pushing, was Crumbzz's undeniable baron dominance even going so far as to win a smite war against a Nunu.
CLG on the other hand completely collapsed in their first outing back from Korea. Their game 1 team comp made no sense, running the binary, lane dependent Nunu with 3 losing lanes was doomed from the get go. It only looked vaguely competitive because Curse was struggling to hit their own stride in game 1. Game 2 CLG again seemed to have no idea what they were doing giving Curse repeats on the important parts of their team comp and then giving up multiple early game dragons to set Quas behind while Cop and Voyboy were allowed to become fed monsters with no contest. It wasn't until game 3 that CLG finally appeared to wake up finally banning and picking okay but it wasn't enough as Curse out maneuvered them lvl 1 to get a 3 buff start for Nunu and then compounded their advantage via a misstep from CLG around dragon to close out the series in dominant fashion.
Both teams leading into this are shadows of their former selves and absolutely deserve to land in the 5th place match from the way they played that series. I think objectively though, the edge goes to CLG just barely. While CLG was definitely not playing optimally in their series, they were definitely decisive in their movements. A lack of decisive calls was the only thing that allowed Dig to take a game off TSM and CLG is unlikely to make the mistake of letting Zion split push unanswered. I expect the series to go much like their regular season head to head, 3-1 in favor of CLG.
After watching the quarterfinals this game became rather hard to call. Dignitas had some good team comp ideas but their execution was abysmal. Even in game 1 their split push efforts worked more due to TSM's indecisive shot calling rather than anything specific Dig did, they lost most of the 4v4 split fights but weren't punished for that by TSM. All 4 games Dig had poor team fighting and abysmal vision control against TSM. The main redeeming quality for Dig, apart from Zion's singular adventure in split pushing, was Crumbzz's undeniable baron dominance even going so far as to win a smite war against a Nunu.
CLG on the other hand completely collapsed in their first outing back from Korea. Their game 1 team comp made no sense, running the binary, lane dependent Nunu with 3 losing lanes was doomed from the get go. It only looked vaguely competitive because Curse was struggling to hit their own stride in game 1. Game 2 CLG again seemed to have no idea what they were doing giving Curse repeats on the important parts of their team comp and then giving up multiple early game dragons to set Quas behind while Cop and Voyboy were allowed to become fed monsters with no contest. It wasn't until game 3 that CLG finally appeared to wake up finally banning and picking okay but it wasn't enough as Curse out maneuvered them lvl 1 to get a 3 buff start for Nunu and then compounded their advantage via a misstep from CLG around dragon to close out the series in dominant fashion.
Both teams leading into this are shadows of their former selves and absolutely deserve to land in the 5th place match from the way they played that series. I think objectively though, the edge goes to CLG just barely. While CLG was definitely not playing optimally in their series, they were definitely decisive in their movements. A lack of decisive calls was the only thing that allowed Dig to take a game off TSM and CLG is unlikely to make the mistake of letting Zion split push unanswered. I expect the series to go much like their regular season head to head, 3-1 in favor of CLG.
Semi-Finals
LMQ vs Team Solo Mid
While my quarter finals preview may not have correctly picked the winner, what I was right about was just how insanely close the series would be between TSM and Dignitas and that to me spells disaster for TSM against second seeded LMQ.
LMQ did not lose practice from someone renewing their visa, has had a better grasp on new patches, has shown much stronger champion select throughout the split, and they have not dropped a single game to TSM so far. Some people claim LMQ has little experience with best of series but that's also not true as they played several in the challenger scene on their road to the LCS and never once dropped a series. The worst LMQ has performed in a best of series is dropping singular games to the 2nd best challenger team in NA at the time, and it was always obvious over confidence that made them slip up in the one game they lost before tightening right back up and obliterating the remainder of a series. TSM's "historically strong playoff performances" are also utterly irrelevant to the conversation as Wildturtle and Dyrus are the only members still on the team that have seen more than one previous playoffs with TSM. All in all, after watching TSM's sloppy performance against Dignitas the only vague hope they have against LMQ is to pray the recent ownership kerfuffle around LMQ has caused the players significant issues in practice and mentality.
I really don't think TSM has much hope outside of picking up a single game from LMQ over confidence. I'm calling 3-1 LMQ.
Cloud9 vs Curse
I will admit despite their 3-1 finish to the season I gave Curse very little credit going into playoffs, but when you consider they had only 5 wins in the first half of the season (14 games!) I'm less crazy than I probably seem now that they've 3-0d into the semi-finals.
Before Curse showed up against CLG I'd have called this series 3-0 for Cloud9 and moved on. Even if C9 has lost a bit of their dominance this split they've retained the exquisite champion select and strong team play that keeps them on top. However C9 has exploitable weaknesses in their early game, a place Curse has been quite strong this split, and more than one of C9's losses have been them getting so far behind early that they simply couldn't catch back up.
We also have an interestingly similar situation recently happen in OGN. KTA a notoriously early game team came up against Samsung Blue a team with weaker early game made up for with strong team play. In the OGN version (SPOILERS!) KTA took the match by forcing it to a game 5 blind pick where they've always had an edge. The NA LCS is now giving us the Hollywood remake in C9 vs Curse, but where KTA pushed to a game 5 blind pick Curse can't so easily force an advantageous situation for them. Cloud9 also does not suffer from the occasional champion select weaknesses SGB has exhibited this season.
If Curse digs down deep and pulls out all their tricks I would not be surprised to seeKTA vs SGB 2 Electric Boogaloo C9 vs Curse go 5 games, but I think in the end Cloud9 will still come out on top. I predict 3-2 C9.
Before Curse showed up against CLG I'd have called this series 3-0 for Cloud9 and moved on. Even if C9 has lost a bit of their dominance this split they've retained the exquisite champion select and strong team play that keeps them on top. However C9 has exploitable weaknesses in their early game, a place Curse has been quite strong this split, and more than one of C9's losses have been them getting so far behind early that they simply couldn't catch back up.
We also have an interestingly similar situation recently happen in OGN. KTA a notoriously early game team came up against Samsung Blue a team with weaker early game made up for with strong team play. In the OGN version (SPOILERS!) KTA took the match by forcing it to a game 5 blind pick where they've always had an edge. The NA LCS is now giving us the Hollywood remake in C9 vs Curse, but where KTA pushed to a game 5 blind pick Curse can't so easily force an advantageous situation for them. Cloud9 also does not suffer from the occasional champion select weaknesses SGB has exhibited this season.
If Curse digs down deep and pulls out all their tricks I would not be surprised to see
Third Place
Team Solo Mid vs Curse
Despite a different team winning than what I predicted, TSM vs DIG still went very much how I expected, super close for no good reason. Meanwhile Curse played better than expected against CLG despite a shaky game 1 and were able to close it out 3-0 which gives me a lot more confidence in this match for Curse.
Throughout the split TSM had this match in their pocket. TSM was the one team Curse just couldn't seem to get a handle on, no matter what they brought to the table TSM walked away with the W. That was until the final week of the regular season. In their 4th and final match up of the regular season Curse absolutely demolished TSM in a 32 minute game. Curse moved from that result to shaping up fast against CLG 3-0 and are now moving into the final weekend of games at PAX looking absolutely on fire. With their strong early game now turning into commanding performances from Cop and Voyboy it seems likely that if Curse can keep their heads in it after losing to C9 that they will dominate a TSM that still hasn't changed after 32 games.
Where Curse looks on fire TSM looks stuck in a rut. Amazing still does not look comfortable outside of his Lee Sin and Elise, dropping a smite war as Nunu and securing zero of the first nine barons against Dignitas in their quarterfinal series. Dyrus seems mostly stuck in the same old champions from the middle of the split reverting to Lulu for most of the games against Dig, and the inclusion of Lustboy has not done much to get Wildturtle out of his slump.
If Curse can deal with the disappointment of losing to C9 it's hard to see how this series can end up in any result other than 3-0 (maybe 3-1) in Curse's favor.
Throughout the split TSM had this match in their pocket. TSM was the one team Curse just couldn't seem to get a handle on, no matter what they brought to the table TSM walked away with the W. That was until the final week of the regular season. In their 4th and final match up of the regular season Curse absolutely demolished TSM in a 32 minute game. Curse moved from that result to shaping up fast against CLG 3-0 and are now moving into the final weekend of games at PAX looking absolutely on fire. With their strong early game now turning into commanding performances from Cop and Voyboy it seems likely that if Curse can keep their heads in it after losing to C9 that they will dominate a TSM that still hasn't changed after 32 games.
Where Curse looks on fire TSM looks stuck in a rut. Amazing still does not look comfortable outside of his Lee Sin and Elise, dropping a smite war as Nunu and securing zero of the first nine barons against Dignitas in their quarterfinal series. Dyrus seems mostly stuck in the same old champions from the middle of the split reverting to Lulu for most of the games against Dig, and the inclusion of Lustboy has not done much to get Wildturtle out of his slump.
If Curse can deal with the disappointment of losing to C9 it's hard to see how this series can end up in any result other than 3-0 (maybe 3-1) in Curse's favor.
Finals
Cloud9 vs LMQ
Despite Cloud9's struggles that started with Hai's hospitalization, and the hype around Chinese imports LMQ, Cloud9 actually holds the upper hand the head to head 3-1.
Both teams are top of the pile right now and it's easy to see why as their rosters hold a lot of the top 2 players in the region for each position. The real difference between the teams is in how they play. LMQ is unbridled aggression, they ward ahead of them, not behind, they dive your tower, they come at you and they kill you. That same aggression is also sometimes their down fall as it sometimes leads to tunneling on a poor dragon fight or a bad tower dive giving up what advantage LMQ may have gained. Cloud9 is a whole other beast, they like controlled purposeful strikes. Fights with a purpose are the only ones C9 desires, if they can't turn a team fight into a dragon, baron, or tower they're just as happy to fall back and let you pass.
Both teams are top of the pile right now and it's easy to see why as their rosters hold a lot of the top 2 players in the region for each position. The real difference between the teams is in how they play. LMQ is unbridled aggression, they ward ahead of them, not behind, they dive your tower, they come at you and they kill you. That same aggression is also sometimes their down fall as it sometimes leads to tunneling on a poor dragon fight or a bad tower dive giving up what advantage LMQ may have gained. Cloud9 is a whole other beast, they like controlled purposeful strikes. Fights with a purpose are the only ones C9 desires, if they can't turn a team fight into a dragon, baron, or tower they're just as happy to fall back and let you pass.
So far Cloud9's controlled style has won out giving them the lead in the head to head, which means in this series the real decider will be the team's ability to adapt in a best of 5. As of this writing C9 has never been pushed to a 4th game by any team in NA. They have gone to Playoffs #1 seed twice before and have dropped zero games in playoffs. Their record is not as spotless in international tournaments, but they have still proven their ability to change and adapt even outside NA.
LMQ has faced plenty of series before, unlike what many people claimed. However LMQ's multitude of series in the challenger scene is nothing compared to the level of competition they can expect to face against Cloud9. Even against challenger scene teams LMQ dropped some games due to tunneling on Baron or Dragon too hard. LMQ has proven that a bad loss does not rattle them, and that they can adapt in a best of series, but they will have to prove they can keep their play tight and champ select strong against the defending champions.
This series is difficult to call due to how strong both teams are and the differences in play style between single games and a best of 5 series. I think whoever no matter what whoever is the first to go 2 games up will take the series, and due to their head to head I think that team will be C9. I predict C9 3-1.
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