LCS Playoff Predictions Review

Now that LCS playoffs are over I'm going to go over my EU and NA quarterfinal predictions as well as those from Gamescom and PAX. I'm going to discuss how I made those predictions, where they went right, where they went wrong, and thoughts on each region's Worlds qualified teams.

The first big thing to talk about when discussing predictions is that it's not something you can ever expect to get 100% correct without a whole lot of luck involved. Everyone from myself to Montecristo to players who'd been scrimming the teams in the finals got some predictions wrong. Because of the limited information we all have available, and the ever present question of player's mentality day of, as well as effectiveness of training and adapting to the patch it is very hard to make anything more than a semi-confident prediction.

While predictions can never be flawless, there is a lot of information available to help improve predictions. I looked at past history between the two teams, accounted for champion select tendencies, as well as strength of team rosters and their specific play styles when making my predictions. When it was a very difficult one to call, like Fnatic vs Alliance, or Dig vs TSM I gave preference to the team which in my opinion had a stronger peak performance with their current roster. In some cases peak performance failed, like in the Dig vs TSM, but in others it helped me properly weight the matchup, as in the case of ROC vs SHC.

EU

SHC vs ROC Prediction: 3-1 ROC, Actual Result: 3-1 ROC

This series went mostly as expected. The one thing I did not expect was SHC to be capable of rallying for game 3, rather than taking an earlier game off and falling to momentum. 

SK vs MIL Prediction: 3=0 MIL, Actual Result: 3=0 SK

I have to admit to a mistake in predicting this series. I didn't give enough weight to how MIL had performed in the final week, a mistake I made multiple times throughout my predictions. I undervalued just how badly MIL had performed in week 11 vs how well SK had performed that same week. Accounting for their difference in results should have adjusted my prediction to a 3-2 in MIL's favor. That prediction still would have been different from the results, but it would have better fallen in line with how the teams had performed throughout the season and accounted for their results only a week before their series. 

SHC vs MIL Prediction: 3-1 SHC, Actual Result: 3-0 SHC

I feel pretty good about this prediction. While I didn't get it exact I correctly noted that if either team went 2-0 up they'd sweep and correctly gave the edge to SHC. I didn't really adjust predictions going into this series, though I likely gave MIL too much credit in spite of their recent performances. 

Fnatic vs ROC Prediction: 3-1 FNC, Actual Result: 3-2 FNC

I'll be honest even as a Roccat fan I never expected them to put up such a wild fight against Fnatic in the semi-finals at gamescom. Overall I feel good about the prediction, Roccat showed up and pushed Fnatic further than most people thought they could and they deserve praise for it, but I think it would have been a bit fanboyish of me to have blindly predicted such a crazy series. 

ALL vs SK Prediction: 3-1 ALL, Actual Result: 3-1 ALL

Nailed it. 

ROC vs SK Prediction: 3-2 ROC, Actual Result: 3-0 SK

This is one of those series that makes it clear why predictions just don't end up being 100% correct without a lot of luck. Roccat has had better champion select than SK for a long time, the teams share a lot of the same problems avoiding either team having obvious significant edges, and ROC had just proved against Fnatic that they were on point at Gamescom and should have pushed SK to the limit. While ROC may not have taken it in the end this series really should have gone all 5 games. Instead Roccat appeared to have spent everything just trying to make it past Fnatic and when they failed they fell apart for the series against SK. 

ALL vs FNC Prediction: 3-2 FNC, Actual Result: 3-1 ALL

While Alliance did hold the head ot head 3-1 over Fnatic this split it felt in large part thanks to Fnatic's All Stars slump at the start. Fnatic was simply not showing up the first few weeks in a lot of peoples opinions. When Fnatic did finally turn it on near the end of the split they were hands down playing on par with Alliance, while having a better champion select phase. Fnatic's superior champion select and the fact they were defending 3 time EU LCS champions weighed it in Fnatic's favor. Instead just like Roccat, it seemed Fnatic was forced to burn everything they had just to make it to the finals against Alliance. I feel like this was another example where a prediction fell apart due to team mentality day of more than incorrectly assessing past results. 

NA

TSM vs Dig Prediction: 3-2 Dig, Actual Result: 3-1 TSM

I feel like not weighing Dig's final week results into this is less of a mistake than it was for MIL's games, but still a definite mistake. I think if I'd retained that lesson from the EU playoffs I might have weighted the series 3-2 for TSM instead of Dig. 

Curse vs CLG Prediction 3-1 CLG, Actual Result: 3-0 Curse

Unlike with Dig I don't think weighing in CLG's performance issues would have been a smart move for this series considering they hadn't been seen since week 10 and spent nearly a month in Korea. By all measure this series should not have gone the way it did. The last time CLG spent a few weeks with coach Montecristo in house they had a dominant performance and sat near the top of the NA LCS standings. Add to that the fact they were practicing in Korea against better scrim partners and it's difficult to reasonably argue that we should have expected CLG to lose, much less fall apart, this series.

Dig vs CLG Prediction: 3-1 CLG, Actual Result: 3-1 Dig

Again I think it would have been a bit unreasonable to predict differently here. Dig's singular working strategy against TSM succeeded thanks to a lack of aggression from TSM, something that CLG had not lacked against Curse even if it hadn't created a win. Dig's champion select also made progressively less sense against TSM where CLG seemed to actually be pulling themselves together a bit over the course of the series but were let down by their actual play and decision making. 

LMQ vs TSM Prediction: 3-0 LMQ, Actual Result 3-2 TSM

Another good example of day of performance making predictions a bit of a crap shoot. TSM did not look any better than they had all split long against Dignitas and LMQ had had their number every time they matched up. I'd hazard to say anyone who predicted this match in TSM's favor after watching TSM vs DIG is guilty of fanboying a bit. The only vaguely reasonable reason to predict difficulty for LMQ was the ownership drama they'd recently been through. Even that didn't seem enough to so heavily set them back though. 

C9 vs Curse Prediction: 3-2 C9, Actual Result: 3-0 C9

Cloud9 is probably the only team I didn't give enough credit to in playoffs this split. Curse had been surging like crazy, there were parallels to other similar team styles matching against each other. I thought that plus C9's continued struggles throughout the split was enough to make it a close match. I did not give the C9 dominance enough credit, peak C9 showed up this series when I didn't think it would and it rolled over Curse. 

Due to there being no break on the weekends and me writing my predictions before hand I didn't make actual predictions for TSM vs C9 or LMQ vs Curse. I didn't expect TSM to come out ahead of LMQ. On twitter though I predicted LMQ taking it over Curse and C9 3-0ing TSM again due to TSM still not looking better against LMQ. I was very happy to be wrong about C9 vs TSM. All credit must be given to TSM for finally looking like a team that could contest for 1st place against C9, both teams played very strong matches and TSM came out the victor.

So there you have it, how I made my predictions, where I think I went wrong, and where I think the unpredictable factors in League made a difference. I intend to make similar predictions for Worlds once more information on matchups are released and hopefully the lessons learned from looking over my predictions this way will mean more accurate predictions in the future.

NA LCS Playoff Preview: PAX

Fifth Place

Counter Logic Gaming vs Dignitas

This is definitely not the 5th place match I was expecting. I predicted both of these teams to win, because both have had the stronger peak performances this split and that is often an important factor when teams get ample time to prepare for a series like this. That same method is how I correctly predicted Roccat beating out SHC in europe, sadly Dig and CLG did not live up to expectations. I will say that Dig came much closer to what I predicted from them than CLG did though.

After watching the quarterfinals this game became rather hard to call. Dignitas had some good team comp ideas but their execution was abysmal. Even in game 1 their split push efforts worked more due to TSM's indecisive shot calling rather than anything specific Dig did, they lost most of the 4v4 split fights but weren't punished for that by TSM. All 4 games Dig had poor team fighting and abysmal vision control against TSM. The main redeeming quality for Dig, apart from Zion's singular adventure in split pushing, was Crumbzz's undeniable baron dominance even going so far as to win a smite war against a Nunu.

CLG on the other hand completely collapsed in their first outing back from Korea. Their game 1 team comp made no sense, running the binary, lane dependent Nunu with 3 losing lanes was doomed from the get go. It only looked vaguely competitive because Curse was struggling to hit their own stride in game 1. Game 2 CLG again seemed to have no idea what they were doing giving Curse repeats on the important parts of their team comp and then giving up multiple early game dragons to set Quas behind while Cop and Voyboy were allowed to become fed monsters with no contest. It wasn't until game 3 that CLG finally appeared to wake up finally banning and picking okay but it wasn't enough as Curse out maneuvered them lvl 1 to get a 3 buff start for Nunu and then compounded their advantage via a misstep from CLG around dragon to close out the series in dominant fashion.

Both teams leading into this are shadows of their former selves and absolutely deserve to land in the 5th place match from the way they played that series. I think objectively though, the edge goes to CLG just barely. While CLG was definitely not playing optimally in their series, they were definitely decisive in their movements. A lack of decisive calls was the only thing that allowed Dig to take a game off TSM and CLG is unlikely to make the mistake of letting Zion split push unanswered. I expect the series to go much like their regular season head to head, 3-1 in favor of CLG. 

Semi-Finals

LMQ vs Team Solo Mid

While my quarter finals preview may not have correctly picked the winner, what I was right about was just how insanely close the series would be between TSM and Dignitas and that to me spells disaster for TSM against second seeded LMQ. 

LMQ did not lose practice from someone renewing their visa, has had a better grasp on new patches, has shown much stronger champion select throughout the split, and they have not dropped a single game to TSM so far. Some people claim LMQ has little experience with best of series but that's also not true as they played several in the challenger scene on their road to the LCS and never once dropped a series. The worst LMQ has performed in a best of series is dropping singular games to the 2nd best challenger team in NA at the time, and it was always obvious over confidence that made them slip up in the one game they lost before tightening right back up and obliterating the remainder of a series. TSM's "historically strong playoff performances" are also utterly irrelevant to the conversation as Wildturtle and Dyrus are the only members still on the team that have seen more than one previous playoffs with TSM. All in all, after watching TSM's sloppy performance against Dignitas the only vague hope they have against LMQ is to pray the recent ownership kerfuffle around LMQ has caused the players significant issues in practice and mentality. 

I really don't think TSM has much hope outside of picking up a single game from LMQ over confidence. I'm calling 3-1 LMQ. 

Cloud9 vs Curse

I will admit despite their 3-1 finish to the season I gave Curse very little credit going into playoffs, but when you consider they had only 5 wins in the first half of the season (14 games!) I'm less crazy than I probably seem now that they've 3-0d into the semi-finals.

Before Curse showed up against CLG I'd have called this series 3-0 for Cloud9 and moved on. Even if C9 has lost a bit of their dominance this split they've retained the exquisite champion select and strong team play that keeps them on top. However C9 has exploitable weaknesses in their early game, a place Curse has been quite strong this split, and more than one of C9's losses have been them getting so far behind early that they simply couldn't catch back up.

We also have an interestingly similar situation recently happen in OGN. KTA a notoriously early game team came up against Samsung Blue a team with weaker early game made up for with strong team play. In the OGN version (SPOILERS!) KTA took the match by forcing it to a game 5 blind pick where they've always had an edge. The NA LCS is now giving us the Hollywood remake in C9 vs Curse, but where KTA pushed to a game 5 blind pick Curse can't so easily force an advantageous situation for them. Cloud9 also does not suffer from the occasional champion select weaknesses SGB has exhibited this season.

If Curse digs down deep and pulls out all their tricks I would not be surprised to see KTA vs SGB 2 Electric Boogaloo C9 vs Curse go 5 games, but I think in the end Cloud9 will still come out on top. I predict 3-2 C9.

Third Place

Team Solo Mid vs Curse

Despite a different team winning than what I predicted, TSM vs DIG still went very much how I expected, super close for no good reason. Meanwhile Curse played better than expected against CLG despite a shaky game 1 and were able to close it out 3-0 which gives me a lot more confidence in this match for Curse.

Throughout the split TSM had this match in their pocket. TSM was the one team Curse just couldn't seem to get a handle on, no matter what they brought to the table TSM walked away with the W. That was until the final week of the regular season. In their 4th and final match up of the regular season Curse absolutely demolished TSM in a 32 minute game. Curse moved from that result to shaping up fast against CLG 3-0 and are now moving into the final weekend of games at PAX looking absolutely on fire. With their strong early game now turning into commanding performances from Cop and Voyboy it seems likely that if Curse can keep their heads in it after losing to C9 that they will dominate a TSM that still hasn't changed after 32 games.

Where Curse looks on fire TSM looks stuck in a rut. Amazing still does not look comfortable outside of his Lee Sin and Elise, dropping a smite war as Nunu and securing zero of the first nine barons against Dignitas in their quarterfinal series. Dyrus seems mostly stuck in the same old champions from the middle of the split reverting to Lulu for most of the games against Dig, and the inclusion of Lustboy has not done much to get Wildturtle out of his slump.

If Curse can deal with the disappointment of losing to C9 it's hard to see how this series can end up in any result other than 3-0 (maybe 3-1) in Curse's favor.

Finals

Cloud9 vs LMQ

Despite Cloud9's struggles that started with Hai's hospitalization, and the hype around Chinese imports LMQ, Cloud9 actually holds the upper hand the head to head 3-1.

Both teams are top of the pile right now and it's easy to see why as their rosters hold a lot of the top 2 players in the region for each position. The real difference between the teams is in how they play. LMQ is unbridled aggression, they ward ahead of them, not behind, they dive your tower, they come at you and they kill you. That same aggression is also sometimes their down fall as it sometimes leads to tunneling on a poor dragon fight or a bad tower dive giving up what advantage LMQ may have gained. Cloud9 is a whole other beast, they like controlled purposeful strikes. Fights with a purpose are the only ones C9 desires, if they can't turn a team fight into a dragon, baron, or tower they're just as happy to fall back and let you pass. 

So far Cloud9's controlled style has won out giving them the lead in the head to head, which means in this series the real decider will be the team's ability to adapt in a best of 5. As of this writing C9 has never been pushed to a 4th game by any team in NA. They have gone to Playoffs #1 seed twice before and have dropped zero games in playoffs. Their record is not as spotless in international tournaments, but they have still proven their ability to change and adapt even outside NA.

LMQ has faced plenty of series before, unlike what many people claimed. However LMQ's multitude of series in the challenger scene is nothing compared to the level of competition they can expect to face against Cloud9. Even against challenger scene teams LMQ dropped some games due to tunneling on Baron or Dragon too hard. LMQ has proven that a bad loss does not rattle them, and that they can adapt in a best of series, but they will have to prove they can keep their play tight and champ select strong against the defending champions.

This series is difficult to call due to how strong both teams are and the differences in play style between single games and a best of 5 series. I think whoever no matter what whoever is the first to go 2 games up will take the series, and due to their head to head I think that team will be C9. I predict C9 3-1. 

NA LCS Playoff Preview: Quarterfinals

Team Solo Mid vs Dignitas

Honestly this series feels like it's going to be much closer than it has any right being. On paper Dignitas is clearly the better team. From adapting to new OP picks, to their sensible picks and bans, to their their often incredible early game roams from Kiwikid, Dig should be considered the clear favorite. What's more Dignitas holds the head to head match up 3-1 over TSM in the regular season. All of that and I still haven't mentioned that TSM lost nearly a week of practice with Amazing in Europe renewing his visa. Still, I can't help but feel the series is tough to call.

Dignitas has hit much better peaks throughout this split; but TSM has been far more consistent. Both teams suffer from serious mistakes in their mid-late game vision and decision making, but TSM has more consistently been able to persevere through those mistakes against the lower tier NA teams. In the end the deciding factor is likely to be champion select, a place that Dignitas has been superior throughout this split. Dig understands both the must pick champions and the weaknesses in TSM's lineup such as Amazing's tendency to fall apart when pushed off the trinity junglers. Dig's tendency to better understand champion select, combined with Amazing losing a week of practice, Lustboy's limited English, and WildTurtle's continued struggles in bot lane should all add together to out weigh Dignitoss' tendency to make poor decisions around Baron.

The inconsistency of both teams is likely to make the series go 5 games. In the end I think Dignitas should take it 3-2.

Curse vs Counter Logic Gaming

Perhaps it's my CLG fan showing through but this series honestly feels like it's CLG's to lose even in the face of Curse's late season surge and 3-1 head to head record against CLG.

Curse surged in the final weeks as CLG slumped, using some interesting strategies like the AD Ttristana mid to snatch a last second 4th place end of the regular season. While Curse has hit their high point pulling out somewhat unusual strategies, CLG's peak this split was entirely about them strategically out playing even the best of NA all across the map. The strategic and rotational play that made CLG a force to be reckoned with during the regular season is what CLG went to Korea to regain. CLG's peak performance this split was unquestionably superior to that of Curse in both map movement and vision control. Now though not only could CLG come back with their slump issues solved, but they've spent the last few weeks learning from some of the best teams in the world while Curse has only had NA opponents to scrim. CLG has all the available tools to bring about a dominant performance in this series, it is simply up to them to use those tools.

While a renewed CLG does have everything it needs to dominate this match up, I don't think it will be a 3-0. There is something to be said for Curse's ability to surprise in champ select. The surprises Curse may have in store could go a long way towards getting them at least 1 game even against Super Saiyan CLG. As a result I predict the series to go 3-1 in favor of CLG. 

Altec is a good first step for Evil Geniuses, but they've still got plenty of work to do

After being forced to defend their LCS spot yet again last split Evil Geniuses knew they had to do something to stay competitive. That something turned out to be signing former Cloud 9 Tempest, who EG successfully defeated to retain their LCS spot, AD Carry Altec to replace Yellowpete. Many EG fans were critical of the move, considering the always consistent Yellowpete to be the least of EG's problems. While it's true that Yellowpete's consistent, never feed but never really carry, play was not an active detriment to the team, it's quickly become abundantly clear that Altec is an enormous boon for EG.

After five games in the first two weeks (he had to miss the first day due to delayed paperwork) Altec has put EG's bot lane on the map as one to be reckoned with. Instead of Yellowpete's mostly ignore-able consistent play Altec threatens to run away with games by himself if left unchecked. In such a short time Altec has already posted some impressive scores including 4/2/4 in a loss to TSM, 8/3/2 in a loss to Dignitas, and 3/0/9 in EG's victory over CompLexity. The threat of Altec carrying a game for EG cannot be underestimated, and that threat means teams can't focus as heavily on Pobelter and Innox and still be successful like they could last split.

Adding Altec and creating an additional threat on the team was a great first step for EG, but it was still just a first step. EG went 1-5 in it's their six games and they've got a ton of work to do if they're going to turn things around.

Pobelter and Innox both need to work on their consistency. Both of EG's solo laners have turned in some utterly amazing games to carry the team to victory Most recently including Innox's crushing of Yazuki that carried EG back to the LCS in the relegation tournament. However, both players have turned in some disgustingly poor performances in the previous split. For EG to break out of the bottom of the pack both of their solo laners will have to fix their own mistakes so they can move into the mid game strong instead of playing from behind. So far things are getting better on this front, Innox is turning in more good games than bad ones in the split push top laner meta, and Pobelter is finished with school and moving into the EG house to practice full time.

Snoopeh needs to work on his timing. The EG jungler has taken more than his fair share of flak in the last year, though it's primarily incorrectly focused on his mechanics. While Snoopeh's not exactly on par with world class junglers like SKT T1 K's Bengi, he's far from being the worst jungler to compete in the NA LCS much less bad enough to drag his whole team down with him. No, the real problem for Snoopeh seems to be in his timing. Whether he's wasting time top lane looking for a gank that isn't going to happen, hatching a ward in the river, or arriving too late to the party bottom, Snoopeh never quite seems to be in the right place at the right time. Almost never do we see Snoopeh actually correctly predict the enemy junglers movements enough to setup a counter gank, like the one Brokenshard pulled off against Cloud 9 to create CompLexity's first win of the split. More effective use of his time from Snoopeh would go a long way to developing early leads for EG that they could convert into victories.

Above all else to be competitive EG must fix their shot calling. From engaging a fight before everyone's close enough to participate, to trading Baron for their Nexus. EG has made terrible call after terrible call and it has got to stop. The indecisive nature of EG's calls has been a major pitfall of the team since they first joined the NA LCS and it's not an easy fix, but there is a glimmer of hope. EG's victory over CompLexity had some of the crispest play the team has ever seen. Sadly the team devolved back to their normal selves the next day against Curse, but it's still a glimmer of hope for EG.

If the Evil Geniuses can find and harness whatever magic it was that propelled them through CompLexity with such ease they could, despite their other problems, actually go toe to toe with some of the best in NA and come out on top thanks in large part to now having all three lanes threatening to carry.

Just how did Denial lose against Curse Academy?

Most people have seen the Denial (DNL) vs Curse Academy (CA) clip from their game in the North American Challenger play in where Denial's vision control allows them to create an incredible display of objective rotations. It exploded on twitter when it happened as well as front paging on the League of legends subreddit almost immediately, follow this link if you need a refresher.

In the run up to the above clip Curse Academy has made two critical mistakes. The first is their vision control has entirely collapsed, the only vision they end up with is around Dragon which they were trying to get control of, and their own base. The second critical mistake is that they have mistimed the dragon. They rush down to get vision control around dragon and find themselves waiting around, which results in them starting to pull back in confusion as the clip starts. Denial knows the dragon is still not spawned, and they've seen CA set up around it.

Denial knows that trading mid inhibitor turret for dragon is not only basically free it's the better trade. The problem that generates the play in the clip is that CA has already started with drawing from dragon in utter confusion when Denial attempts to run up mid. Denial knows they can't afford to get caught in a straight up fight with their team being so heavily poke/disengage focused. They also know from clearing it out that CA has no vision on Baron or the route over to Baron.

From this the clip plays out, Denial hides in a pink warded bush in hopes of a face check. Curse Academy avoids the face check temptation but Denial quickly change plans and take the mid inhibitor thanks to the time involved in CA taking the long way to check Baron. CA pursues denial towards bottom lane eating poke and getting split up along the way allowing Denial to win the fight. All told Denial secures multiple kills, the middle inhibitor, and the bottom inhibitor turret before backing away to heal.

At this point is where the confusion comes in for most people, because honestly Curse Academy has completely lost this game. Against competent teams it's simply impossible to win from this situation. Denial has a lead, an inhibitor down, a second exposed inhibitor, and a poke/disengage team composition. If Denial were SKT T1 K the game would have roughly 5 minutes left before they kill the nexus regardless of who were taking CA's position. If League of Legends had Starcraft's restart from replay feature, this would be the Kobayashi Maru of League of Legends. Any strong team playing in Denial's position as of the end of that clip will win against anyone else 100% of the times they don't throw.

What Denial should have done at this point is push up the mid and bottom minion waves, then 5 man siege bottom. The combined pressure of the super minions mid and Denial's incredible poke is enough that the only way to defend the second inhibitor is to dive. Except a dive won't work unless Denial screws up as they have Karma's team wide speed boost, and Jayce's speed boost to escape any hard engage attempt from Curse Academy. Denial's team composition is purpose built for this exact situation and it should have allowed them to sit bottom sieging the inhibitor until it inevitably fell.

Instead what Denial actually exposed just how lacking in experience they were. Instead of pushing up after they healed Denial set up around baron and indecisively contested with Curse Academy for ward control of the area. It would be a full 10 minutes of indecisive moves and mostly farming from Denial that allowed Curse Academy to reduce the gold gap and eventually steal the first Baron of the game completely turning it around.

When they should have continued being decisive and pressed their advantage, Denial instead showed their inexperience allowing Curse Academy to farm themselves back into it which ultimately lost Denial the game.

NA's influx of foreign talent is not a death knell, it's a challenge

It seems in the wake of LMQ qualifying for NA LCS and players like Amazing and Seraph being imported by NA teams all the talk is about allowing foreign players into the NA LCS. Complaints about holding down NA talent range from pointing out more than 1/4th of NA LCS will be foreign players to the fact that only 3 of 8 junglers will be from NA in the next split.While NA players predict doom for NA, in truth the importing of foreign talent is completely the opposite.

The only solid argument against foreign players boils down to it having a negative effect because it removes NA competition. Often people cite the StarCraft 2 WCS where a lack of region locking has had a clear deleterious effect. It is certainly true that the WCS lack of region locking has exacerbated a problem in the StarCraft scene. You must live in Korea and play on the Korean SC2 server in order to be competitive and Korean players flock to other regions looking for a sure spot that they otherwise would likely fail to grab in Korea. The lack of region locking and the allowance for players to telecommute means local players never get to play those at the top level, and as a result never get the practice needed to be true competition without moving to Korea.

Unlike the WCS, the LCS requires players to show up and play live, in studio, every week; as well as qualify playing via the local server over an extended period. There is no WCS style show up for a week and otherwise play online via Korean servers from Korea. The LCS requirements are stiff enough that if you so much as don't live in the same state as the studio you're going to have a bad time which Curse, TSM, and Gambit have all attested to. This means even foreign players coming into the NA LCS are forced to play on the NA servers with and against the NA players.

Not only is bringing in foreign players not creating a WCS style scenario, it's also actively improving the global LoL scene as a whole. Players are becoming more valuable, lured over with promises of more money and better amenities. In order to keep all their own talent being bled away foreign organizations have to pay more and treat their players better. The knowledge that teams with big American bank rolls are willing to pick up talent from anywhere gives every player a stronger bargaining position, as a direct result every player is able to earn more and live better as a pro player.

On top of raising potential earnings Foreign players also help native players improve skill wise. It's no doubt that the NA players of season 3 were simply not on par with EU, China, or Korea, no matter how you look at it they were going to have to get better. Foreign competition doesn't just immediately improve the scene with an influx of new talent, they also serve as free personal trainers for every local player who runs across them in solo-queue. The way to beat the best is to compete against the best, and now NA players have access to more pros on an even higher level. The short term is players like Oddone, Elementz, Scarra, and other players who were not world class find themselves out of a job, the long term is they've been challenged to use a free sparring partner and get to the level they always needed to reach to be a world champion.

The truth of the matter is that any player replaced by foreign talent likely had low chances on the world stage anyways. It's hard to have that thrown in your face, but it's not the beginnings of the scene's apocalypse. It is an invitation, a challenge, to finally dig down deep and become the player required by a World Champion team. The NA LCS is going to be much stronger this summer thanks to the influx of new players, and the challenger scene will be better when relegations come about thanks to months of practice against a new set of best in NA players who've raised the bar.

Nien's departure leaves gaping hole in CLG roster.

By the time HotshotGG stepped down from his position in the top lane of CLG the professional meta had shifted heavily from that of solo queue. 2v1 lane swaps, fast pushes, rotations, and objective control were king and the old guard were forced to adapt or die. Solo queue was no longer good at prepping top laners for what they'd face in the LCS, and incredibly skilled solo queue laners were getting destroyed by a constant wave of 1v2. Even some of the best LCS top lanes of the time such as Dyrus, Megazero, and Soaz were vocal in their dislike and struggles with the 1v2 that top lane had become.

With solo queue failing to teach the necessary skills, and even LCS alum struggling to cope, how would CLG fill the top lane? Thus formed a wild idea. Instead of trying to break through the bad habits and false lessons instilled by solo queue CLG would pull a mechanically gifted former LCS player, such as an ADC or mid laner, who'd never played top before and purpose build them for professional play. Instead of learning how to 1v1 on Riven, they'd teach their new top laner how to hold a tower 1v2 as Shyvana. Instead of learning how to split push as Tryndamere, they'd teach the new top laner how to combine Mundo and TP to generate intense pressure. A purpose built top laner specifically for the unique meta of professional top lane was created, CLG Nien. 

The community backlash was strong, spurred on by things like Nien's former team mate and popular top laner Megazero criticizing CLG for passing him over in favor of Nien an at the time AD Carry. These sentiments would sour a vocal section of the community against Nien for the duration of his time on CLG and even color the judgement of some prominent esports personalities. Ultimately this section of the community would be cited by Nien as a contributing factor to his departure from the team after a full year of play and CLG's first ever positive results in the LCS. 

Contrary to that wildly popular sentiment though, Nien was not a weak player. The most often lorded examples of Nien's "bad" play were actually the exact opposite. He was often criticized for being caught out farming behind an enemy tower, over staying with a hefty sum of gold built up, or being caught out tower diving an opponent. In all the cases Nien did indeed make mistakes resulting in his death which anti-fans and esports journalists alike would foolishly trumpet as proof that Nien was a bad player. The truth however is the exact opposite, not one of those scenarios is possible when losing. You can't get caught out dirty farming behind an enemy tower if you're behind, the enemy laner would simply kill you 1v1 as you'd have no place to go. You cannot be caught out tower diving an opponent when you're losing the lane, as you'd never have won enough trades to have the health disparity making a dive possible in the first place. And you certainly cannot stay in lane with over 2k gold in your pocket while losing the lane, you'd be crushed under your tower long before you could build to that point. This is not to say Nien was without his flaws, of course he made mistakes. He would occasionally lose lane to stronger duelists Balls or Dyrus on top of the mistakes born of greed listed above that would often result in his death. 

Many of Nien's critics, blinded by their own solo queue mentality, have spoken at lengths about how better players would have survived the scenarios where Nien faltered, and they are in a sense correct. If we were to blind ourselves to everything but the top lane and compare Nien to someone like the much vaunted, and often fan requested to be the new CLG top laner, Zorozero it would be no contest. In a pure 1v1 head to head Zoro would smash Nien over and again in most matchups. League of Legends is however not a 1v1, and professional play is a long way removed from the smash your lane and carry by yourself attitude of solo queue. 

When we separate away the lane phase and compare the team play impact of both players Zorozero is simply out classed a thousand times over. Nien's 1v2s, rotations, usage of teleport pressure, and willingness to sacrifice his own score to allow his team to win, all those things CLG wanted to purpose build into a top laner, result in Nien having more than double Zorozero's time spent fighting with his team when they needed him and a far greater impact on games. Even in the recent promotion matches with Teleport being so heavily buffed Zorozero's team impact was a shadow of what we've seen from Nien for the entire split. 

League of Legends is a team game, and the importance of that team work has never been more apparent in the professional scene than it is today. CLG knew they'd have to build a top laner from the ground up to avoid the pitfalls generated by solo queue top lane play. Now with Nien gone there's a gaping wound in CLG's lineup and too few weeks to heal it. At best CLG finds a stop-gap in the form of an individually strong player like Zorozero or Megazero and fumbles their way around their solo queue bad habits to place in the top 4 again. At worst CLG is forced to start all over again training a new top laner from the ground up. Either way the hope of continued improvement and, a trip to Worlds this year, is low. Caused in part by the community's inability to cope with a player changing positions. 

LCS All Star Picks, Part Two - NA

Just like my EU post I'm going to break down my top 3 choices for each role for the NA All Star team. I'm going to reiterate that I'm working on the assumption that the teams have the same 3 players per LCS team restriction as last year's All Stars, which is why you might not see some strong players make the top 3 list. Riot has yet to release concrete details on the All Stars game beyond that they're eliminating byes from Worlds, so that wont be a reward for All Stars, but an announcement should come soon. Regardless of the reward for All Stars we all want wins for the LCS regions so I've done my best to pick the absolute best for the #1 spot in each role.

TOP LANE

1. Dyrus - TSM. Dyrus being the top of this list should not be a surprise. He's strong enough on the meta champions to be a lane bully, he was the NA All Star top laner last year, he's helped TSM to maintain a top 3 NA position for a long time, I could go on. Dyrus has been a top tier player and a fan favorite for a very long time and his consistent performance has definitely earned him the top spot on this list. 
2. Nien - CLG. Reddit might have a hate boner for Nien, but that does not in any way translate to the strength of his play. Nien's performance on the current top lane meta champions has been second only to Dyrus in consistently creating a snowball. Nien has demonstrated an impressive versatility as a player switching not just roles but also teams between spring and summer split, and is constantly working to improve himself. That earns Nien his spot on this list. 
3. Zionspartan - Coast. Though Coast has under performed so far this split, Zion's recent Jax play has shown that he's still a very dangerous top laner. One of the most innovative top laners in NA Zion is credited with bringing to light the Tryndamere Jayce counter last spring, and the reminding NA that Jax is still a thing this season. All of that combined with the fact that Zionspartan is always a major component in Coast victories should make it clear why he has a spot on this list. 
4. Honorable Mentions: Balls who was primarily left off the list due to the 3 member rule, as well as Quas and Innox two strong players on their own champions that aren't quite in the Meta right now.  

JUNGLE

1. Meteos - Cloud 9. After Cloud 9 burst onto the NA scene last split it quickly became clear that Meteos was a jungler on a whole other level. Things haven't changed in that regard. Cloud 9 and Meteos are both shifting their play styles to fit more in line with what they encountered at Worlds, but are still holding strong in the top of the NA LCS despite their growing pains. Meteos being the top pick for Jungler is hardly a controversial pick. 
2. Dexter - CLG. Now that the Visa troubles have finally been settled the Dexter hype train has arrived and things are looking good for CLG. While he may not be blowing the world away with flawless play just yet, Dexter has performed above and beyond expectation for someone who's just finally escaped the US border red tape after nearly a month of the team having to delve into their bag of subs. The quality play he's brought to CLG should earn Dexter a spot on any list of top NA junglers. 
3. Crumbzz - Dignitas. There's been a resurgence for Dignitas in the early part of this split and a large part of it is thanks to the smart play of Crumbzz. Crumbzz is probably the most underrated jungler in North America despite numerous flashy plays from Lee Sin kicks to Mobi boots rush Rammus. The quality play Crumbzz has routinely demonstrated for over a season makes him one of the best Junglers in NA and earns him the final spot on this list. 
4. Honorable Mentions: Snoopeh, TheOddOne, and IWillDominate, all of which are great players that on any given day could vie for a spot on this list. 

MID LANE

1. Bjergsen - TSM. The BjergerKing cometh, and TSM did say unto NA "let there be wins!" The hype around Bjergsen was immense when people first learned he was coming to NA and for good reason. He has dominated the mid lane helping to lead TSM to first place and 11 straight wins so far with no end to the streak in sight. It's impossible to think of anyone that deserves the NA All Star mid spot more than Bjergsen. 
2. Hai - Cloud 9. No slouch himself, Hai has performed spectacularly as the leader of Cloud 9, the only team to take a win off TSM so far this split. Cloud 9 has continued to look strong since they first exploded into the LCS last summer so it should come as no surprise that Hai has a firm spot in the top 3 mid laners for NA. 
3. Pobelter - EG. Pobelter was nother mid laner at the center of a hype storm leading into the season. Unlike Bjergsen, Pobelter failed to deliver in the first weeks. Since then he's clearly gotten over his issues, whether it was LAN jitters or synergy with the rest of EG, and become a strong force in the mid lane. Pobelter enjoys rare company as one of only a few in NA to have out played Bjergsen thanks to his tricky moves on Fizz. The sheer amount of improvement shown by Pobelter already this split earned him the number 3 on this list. 
4. Honorable Mentions: Link, Shiphtur, and Scarra. All are strong players and have shown a few flashes of brilliance this season, but they haven't quite replicated the heights of play coming from the top 3.

AD CARRY

1. Doublelift - CLG. It should surprise no one that Doublelift tops the list for ADC. He's consistently making highlight reels, ADC All Star last season, routinely winning bad lane matchups against the best competition NA has to offer. NA has gotten much better over the course of the last year, but Doublelift remains top of the pile. 
2. Sneaky - Cloud 9. Last split the utility AD did little to showcase Sneaky's skill at ADC and I even criticized him when the few times he played mechanically demanding champions like Vayne he wasn't up to par with the likes of Doublelift or Wildturtle. This season Sneaky has clearly taken to the current bot lane meta and demonstrated that he clearly deserves his place on one of the best teams in NA, as well as on this list. 
3. Cop - Curse. If I had to pick one player from either LCS region as the most improved, it would be Cop. At the beginning of Season 3 he was a very passive player relying mostly on the long range aoe of Miss Fortune. Since then he's picked up the highly demanding Draven, and become as blood thirsty as the best ADCs. His incredible Draven play helped Curse keep their spot in the LCS and made Cop a strong pick for this list. 
4. Honorable Mentions: WildTurtle who was left off this list because of the 3 per team rule, and Imaqtpie who's inconsistency as a player over shadows the incredible heights of play he can reach. 

SUPPORT

1. Xpecial - TSM. The idea that Xpecial is the best support for the job of All Stars is not a controversial one. He proved he works well with Doublelift last year at All Stars, and has showcased incredible mechanics and decision making in the support role for years. Xpecial remains arguable the most mechanically gifted support in NA, which means he remains the best choice for top of this list.
2. Krepo - EG. It should be no surprise Krepo makes this list, he was one of the most gifted supports in EU last year and he's risen right to the top of the pile in NA. From his strong game sense to call Leona a counter to Annie before anyone picked it up, to his impressive play that forced Soraka bans in a bloodthirsty support meta it's clear Krepo earned his place as a top NA support. 
3. Saintvicious - Curse. With less than a month in the support role Saintvicious is probably the most controversial member of this entire post. None the less Saint has always been a player praised for his shot calling. His decisions in the jungle helped lead Curse to qualify for the LCS, a strong finish in the spring split, and lead the NA All Star team to victory over EU last year. The role may be different but Saint is still calling the shots on Curse, leading them to victory in his first support outing with his incredible Alistar play. Saint has made an impressive show so far, and I have no doubt that he will help Curse to improve as the split goes on, that makes him a suitable pick for All Stars. 
4. Honorable Mentions: LemonNation who's infamous notebook was only left off this list to fit the 3 member rule, as well as Aphromoo who could easily vie for a spot on this list. 

It was incredibly tough to make these picks, as much as I'd like to just send all of TSM or C9 that's not how All Stars works. I'm sure the biggest gripe that anyone reading this will have is with the lack of WildTurtle on the ADC top 3. While I would agree with most that Turtle is very close to Doublelift in skill I simply can't justify dropping Xpecial, Bjergsen, or Dyrus from the list just to give Turtle a place over someone who's arguable just as good or slightly better than him. I am confident that my assembly for the number 1 picks of each role is the best possible under the 3 player constraint. 

An additional note, Bloodwater's recent AMA suggested the All Stars team might be limited to 2 members of any team rather than the 3, whether that's his inside track to Riot talking or just him making a mistake is unclear. If Bloodwater is correct the 2nd and 3rd choices of the list would need a heavy revamp but the top spots could mostly stay the same with only elevating Krepo to the top. Krepo is a strong support and would satisfy some fan desires that emerged after he joined Doublelift on the analyst desk at worlds.